Within the Margin

The 2026 elections for the United States Senate are of even greater import and suspense than the House of Representatives, where a Democratic majority is all but certain and merely the magnitude is in doubt. The power to control confirmation hearings in the Senate is massively consequential while six-year terms give each victory a lasting durability otherwise hard to find in politics. The suspense, meanwhile, owes to the fact that so many of the competitive Senate races are taking place in states where Democrats have not come close to a win in recent years, and others where high-profile recent misses are embedded in political consciousness (I’m looking at you, Maine 2020). Throughout this election season I have moved cautiously: identifying a wider map from the start, but with a high threshold to actually move a seat into the Democratic column. My early September ratings yielded a 50-50 Senate, with Dems gaining three seats from the current 53-47 Republican majority. A 50-50 tie, of course, still produces Republican control of the Senate, with the vice president casting the tiebreaking vote to organize the chamber. My October 24 update moved another seat into the Dem column, for a 51-49 majority – secure, although some would argue Pennsylvania’s John Fetterman would rescue the GOP with a party switch.

Tonight, I’m making a final set of six changes, all of them in the Democratic direction. There has not been much in the way of encouraging polling numbers for Republicans in the final weeks of this campaign, nor is there much to excite them from early voting data (which we should all be putting precious little stock in anyway) and nor have any Democratic candidates committed a major gaffe down the stretch. No, dear reader, I do not consider the news that Mary Peltola’s campaign was recruiting other guys named Dan Sullivan to get on the ballot a gaffe (it was obvious to most that it was orchestrated, so it’s not really news; it’s also not illegal and I don’t even think it’s unethical. I do think it’s mostly a waste of a campaign’s time and probably runs against the grain for the party that purports to be defenders of democracy. I’d pass on it if pitched to me. That said, it’s mildly funny and Democrats have struggled with being funny for, well, the entirety of my adult life.) And I do not consider the erratic machinations of Haley Stevens in Michigan likely to move votes, especially coming on the Sunday before Election Day in a state with significant uptake in early voting. Here’s what’s actually moving: