Within the Margin

I haven’t published a Senate update since my September series covering each race in some depth. Let’s start with the big board and then we’ll look at the individual changes.

The map keeps shifting, and all the moves are in the same direction. This represents a four-seat gain for Democrats, which is one more than I projected in September. So we’re forecasting a 51-49 Democratic majority, compared to the 53-47 advantage Republicans currently hold.

Here’s the full set of changes:

The new flip is Ohio, where former senator Sherrod Brown’s months-long polling lead continues to hold up and where appointed GOP incumbent Jon Husted’s campaign is dimly regarded by his own party. Ohio is also the scene of mostly-negative coverage for Republicans lately in their hotly-contested gubernatorial race: Vivek Ramaswamy is defending his choice to film and air a disgusting ad in which Amy Acton’s estranged mother condemns her daughter’s candidacy. Once you know why the two are estranged, it becomes mind-blowing that Ramaswamy ever thought about filming this ad, let alone followed through and broadcast it. So that’s probably not helping Husted much, either. But another part of why I kept this Tilt Rep back in September, despite Brown’s consistent polling leads, was Ohio’s recent history of flashing good polls for Dems into October followed by Republicans surging ahead as the election drew near. That’s not happening, at least not yet. Coupled with GOP complaints about how things are going here, I think it’s time to trust the numbers.

Besides Ohio, we’ve got five other seats that are still looking like Republican wins, but with less certainly than in September.

Kansas: It sure seems as though Republican incumbent Roger Marshall was completely unprepared for a truly close race, and that’s what Democratic pastor Adam Hamilton is giving him. There’s a dearth of high-quality polling here, as with most places, so we’re following the money moves – as Republicans shift money from the swing state of North Carolina to this state, where they haven’t lost a Senate race in 94 years. We’re cognizant of how hard tariffs and Iran War-induced gasoline and diesel increases are hitting agricultural states like Kansas. Finally, we know that Hamilton mostly leads in the available polling, albeit by small margins – and the one gold-standard poll we have showed a tied race a month ago. There’s a case to be made that if anyone has the edge here, it’s actually Hamilton. I’m still regressing toward the mean, so to speak – and that means incorporating that 94-year gap between Democratic Senate wins here along with the checkered history of public polling in under-polled, mostly-white states. But I’m quite comfortable in at least moving from Lean Rep to Tilt Rep.

Mississippi: I’ve told friends and family all year that Scott Colom’s campaign in Mississippi is one to watch, because of his strengths and – again – the weaknesses of the Republican incumbent. Cindy Hyde-Smith has underperformed the state’s partisan lean in her two previous Senate campaigns. She’s talking about how people should “pick another protein” to work around high beef prices, and Colom’s got a clever ad mocking her for it. We’re seeing signs of really impressive Black turnout in many parts of the South this year. Democrats have shifted some party spending into this race, and Republicans are considering doing the same. All year, I’ve said it would surely be an upset, but that it’s in the realm of possibility. I’ve urged people not to ignore the possibility of Mississippi mattering on election night. Now that there’s a little more in the way of Democratic resources here, it’s increasingly plausible that Mississippians “pick another senator instead.”

Nebraska: Independent Dan Osborn has once again consolidated Democratic support in his second bid for U.S. Senate seat in Nebraska, after coming closer in 2024 to winning one than any Dem had since Ben Nelson’s final win in 2006 – which happened to come against Pete Ricketts, the now-incumbent senator Osborn’s trying to defeat. This was the only one of the independent-versus-Republican matchups that I rated as non-safe in September, and I’m shifting it another tier toward Dems this month. Osborn still has a way to go – remember that he fared well in polling in much of 2024, before losing by seven points. That was respectable but still not where he needs to be, and indies often tend to fall short of their polling in the end. Most surveys here have Ricketts ahead – but consistently within the margin of error. We’ve got a hedge a bit more when a race shows as close in mid to late October, so a move from Likely Rep to Lean Rep is warranted.

South Carolina: Trump has been forced to campaign in a safe red state to get his chosen candidate over the finish line, and it’s still not entirely clear it will be enough. Darline Graham’s clearly relying on partisanship over preparation. I don’t think Annie Andrews has that special something that would set her apart and create the permission structure for Republican voters to cross over and choose her. But she’s running a largely mistake-free campaign and we can’t rule out another Graham gaffe. This is yet another state where it would be nice to get some high-quality polling instead of the shaky Impact Research and Trafalgar surveys we’re getting instead. But they do point consistently to a closer race – one that only leans Republican rather than being an outright likely win for them.

South Dakota: Earlier this week, Axios reported that “Republicans aren’t overly concerned about Sens. Ashley Moody in Florida or Mike Rounds in South Dakota.” They’re not overly concerned about a Senate race in South Dakota, a state Trump won by 29 points two years ago? They’re only a little concerned? My god, this is quite the election cycle. It’s a stunning admission of how the GOP views its standing in the final weeks of the campaign if they’re suggesting this is the good news. That – along with some single-digit polling from the lower-quality firms that are the only ones taking the lay of the land here – are enough to move this off Safe Rep. Independent Brian Bengs has the backing of Dems here, but he needs a whole lot more than just Dems to win this state, obviously. He’s unlikely to find it…but it’s not as far-fetched as it still seemed on Labor Day.