One Last Rating Change in the House
Maybe this is the Obama nostalgia in me, but I do think Tom Perriello – one of 2008’s most remarkable winners – is going to do it again this year and re-take Virginia’s 5th district. He served one term before losing in the 2010 wave while performing admirably in his rather red seat. The district fundamentals say it shouldn’t happen, and in my most recent House post I moved it only to Tilt Republican. But Perriello is a skilled operator, early voting (I know, I know, I always advise caution) shows the college towns are turning out with force in this part of the state, and the very sharpest observers of Virginia elections – the delightfully-named Chaz Nuttycombe and the crew at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, housed within this district at the University of Virginia’s esteemed Center for Politics – think this is going to flip. I’m going to follow their lead on this one.
That brings my projection for the House to 241-194 in favor of Democrats, a net gain of 26 seats (I’m using 215 as their base – 214 seats currently held plus a vacancy in a safe-Dem seat in Florida). Click here for the full November update breaking down 19 other changes.