Within the Margin

Eighteen down, eighteen to go. Welcome to part three of a state-by-state look at each of the races for governor this year. I’m aiming for brevity but trying to provide enough flavor to contextualize each race. This edition’s capsules will be a bit longer, owing to the competitiveness and complexity in as many as seven of these nine races.

We’re taking these thirty-six contests in alphabetical order, nine per article. For Alabama through Georgia, plus the chart showing the rating for each gubernatorial election, click here. For Hawaii through Michigan, click here.

Minnesota: This state ought to represent an opportunity for Republicans this year, given an assortment of government oversight problems that have resulted in fraud and exploitation of government programs (in some cases involving the state’s Somali-American community, which is one of the Minnesota GOP’s favorite boogeymen – although as is typical they’ve exaggerated the ethnic element of the scandal). But Minnesota is a bluish shade of purple, the winds are very much at Democrats’ backs this election cycle, and Democrats have nominated for governor one of the more popular politicians in Minnesota history in Senator Amy Klobuchar. She has won her four races for U.S. Senate with at least 56% of the vote each time, and as a federal official she can legitimately say she had nothing to do with the recent problems in state government. The Republican standard bearer is House Speaker Lisa Demuth, who’s biracial, a woman, and relatively moderate: all ways to set oneself apart from the contemporary GOP at a time when their brand is damaged by Trump and an unwillingness to regulate his tariffs, his war policy, and so on. Is it enough? Demuth would probably be on her way to a win over outgoing Governor Tim Walz or someone from his administration, but Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan is running for U.S. Senate instead of pursuing the governorship. I tend to think Klobuchar plus a friendly environment is just too much for Demuth to overcome. But Klobuchar’s single-digit polling leads put us in unfamiliar territory; this is a candidate used to winning by quite a bit more. She’s a cool operator and has avoided mistakes; I think her persona offers a no-nonsense edge that probably puts voters already inclined to support her at ease when it comes to imagining her cleaning up some problems in government administration. Nonetheless, this is one of only two races for governor (the other being Oregon) that I have moved in Republicans’ direction this fall. Likely Dem (on September 1) > Lean Dem (hold)

Nebraska: It’s one thing to see independent (but de facto Democratic nominee) Dan Osborn making a Senate race in Nebraska competitive for the second consecutive cycle. It’s to be expected that Democrats finally win back the blue-leaning Omaha Congressional district, with a strong incumbent retiring amid a Dem-friendly national environment. Flirting with flipping the Lincoln-area 1st Congressonal district? That’s a sign of a wave year. But potentially flipping the governorship in this state? Now we’re talking blue tsunami. And we can’t rule that out: there’s a decided lack of high-quality polling in this state, like every year, but what we do have shows former two-term state senator Lynne Walz (distant cousin of the outgoing Minnesota governor) in striking distance of incumbent Jim Pillen. Do I think she can pull it off? Unlikely – but for it to be anything but Safe Rep is noteworthy; Democrats’ last win a Nebraska governor election was back in 1994. Pillen won easily (59%-36%) for years ago. But farm states have been hit hard by Trump’s tariffs and walloped again by the gasoline and diesel price shocks stemming from the Iran War. If it happens, it won’t be that hard to explain why. Safe Rep (on September 1) > Likely Rep (hold)

Nevada: After capturing the governorship in 2022 and then seeing Trump flip the Silver State two years later, Republican governor Joe Lombardo had the momentum coming into this cycle. Democrats recruited a proven statewide winner themselves in attorney general Aaron Ford, but observers still generally gave Lombardo the edge. But price shocks resonate loudly in working-class states like Nevada. This is also one of the few states¹ where we can divine something from early voting trends and where we have a reliable guru to break those numbers down, in the Nevada Independent’s Jon Ralston. So far, those figures point to Democratic success here this year. But Nevada Republicans blew the doors off with their Election Day voting in the last midterm (2022) and they may well do so again. That said, I’m not sure I’d be expecting a real blast of enthusiasm from that party this time around. Lombardo retains the edge, but only narrowly. Tilt Rep (hold)

New Hampshire: Democrats have carried the Granite State in the last six presidential contests and the last four U.S. Senate races, but Republicans have fared much better at the state level. Popular governor Chris Sununu won four in a row from 2016 through 2022 (New Hampshire elects its governors every two years, unlike most states) and Kelly Ayotte comfortably won an open seat race in 2024. A former attorney general and senator, Ayotte has – like Sununu – offered occasional nods to moderation and a bit of skepticism toward Trump, keeping her reasonably well-liked in a state that voted against him all three times. She is likely to prevail again this year against former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington, as I’m not seeing any signs that New Hampshire is looking to make a change in the statehouse even as it maintains its fidelity to Dems at the federal level. Likely Rep (hold)

New Mexico: With Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham term-limited, the Land of Enchantment plays host this year to an open-seat race for governor. It ought to be at least mildly competitive; this is a blue state but not enormously so, and meteorologist Mark Ronchetti kept the margin to about six points in the last gubernatorial election. But Republicans have completed punted the Senate race – nominating a fairly random character via write-in; are not seriously competing for any of the state’s three Congressional districts; and have an ok-but-not-special candidate for governor in Rio Rancho mayor Gregg Hull. He’s looking to phase out the state’s income tax, a scheme which may prove riskier than in higher-wealth states that operate without one. The Democratic nominee is former congressmember and Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland, who is seeking to become the country’s first femle Native American governor. She has the inside track thanks to more experience, better name recognition, and a friendly national political environment. Likely Dem (hold)

New York: I spent much of 2022 asserting that an arch-Trumper like Lee Zeldin could not make the governor’s race competitive in Blue York. In the final stretch of the race, it became clear that Zeldin would do better than I had thought – and even then, he still beat my expectations. Zeldin held Democrat Kathy Hochul, who had succeeded Andrew Cuomo as governor upon the latter’s 2021 resignation, to a six-and-a-half point margin of victory. It was the closest a Republican had come to winning the governorship here since George Pataki’s final win in 2002. How did it happen? Zeldin focused on high-profile crime stories and controversies around the state’s 2019-2020 era criminal justice reforms. He rode discontent from pandemic-era COVID restrictions. And he downplayed but did not disavow his right-wing positions on abortion rights, same-sex marriage and so on, which voters assumed were safe anyway in such a blue state.² After Trump fared far better in the Empire State than in his previous two campaigns, there was chatter than Hochul could really be in trouble in 2026. But the governor has found her footing in working against the Trump administration’s non-stop attacks on her state and working with the rising star in New York politics: NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani. Republicans cleared the field for Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, casting aside a pair of ultra-ambitious congressmembers in Mike Lawler and Elise Stefanik. Blakeman’s coming off a decisive re-election in Nassau last year and has tried to emulate Zeldin in some ways (talking about crime and socialism) while making different choices in others, like producing an ad where he made clear that abortion rights were safe on his watch. Blakeman doesn’t quite have the energy and skill to pull off the upset, especially with Republicans now on the back foot politically – crime is less of a talking point and the cost of living is much more of one, with Trump’s tariffs on Canada causing regional problems in western NY and the North Country. I don’t think Hochul is suddenly a masterful politician: but she has wisely partnered with someone who is (Mamdani) and she relishes fighting for her state against Trump and his friends. Polling shows a Likely Dem race, but I think Mamdani’s efforts to boost her will help her perform a few points ahead of polling. She’s got the upside this time around. Safe Dem (hold)

Ohio: The Buckeye State has trended sharply to the right in the Trump years. It was a premier swing state for decades, and one that Obama won twice, but Trump carried it three times even as polling showed close races. The trend culminated in a smashing 55%-44% win in 2024, the first time since 1988 that either party carried the state by a double-digit margin in a presidential race. Armed with a sense of partisan invincibility, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy entered the race for governor. A failed candidate for the GOP presidential nomination who was part of the DOGE project for a matter of hours, Ramaswamy’s MAGA credentials were nonetheless in good order. But I suspected from the start that his instincts were not: a pharma bro who condescends to wide swaths of America is not a great fit for many states and especially not the so-called Rust Belt. Trump can play that game but most cannot. My skepticism was vindicated by a number of polls showing Democrat Amy Acton in front, and then Ramaswamy really showed us who he is: he ran an ad in which Amy Acton’s estranged mother Donna calls her daughter a liar who shouldn’t be governor. But…they’re estranged because in the 1970s, Arthur married a man, Cledith Arthur, who had previously been accused of raping his daughter. When 12-year old Amy accused him of assaulting her as well, Donna sided with Cledith in court against her own daughter. The court ultimately removed young Amy from her mother’s custody – unusual in the 1970s – and the Arthurs skipped town. Decades later, Donna lives in her car in a Pennsylvania church parking lot, and Ramaswamy’s crew convinced her to do this ad. The situation is grotesque, and has resulted in a flood of Republicans condemning the ad and distancing themselves from Ramaswamy – though the president and vice president have cheered it. The ad remains on the airwaves. I already like Acton’s chances in his race – she’s moderate and she has some bipartisan cred from working as state health director under Republican governor Mike DeWine, and even if her Covid-era actions in that capacity have earned her enmity from some circles, she is generally viewed as a competent professional. And now? A sympathetic figure as well. Tilt Dem (flip)

Oklahoma: Every four years, some of us convince ourselves that Oklahoma has a competitive race for governor despite it being one of the reddest states in the union. I’m especially guilty of this in recent cycles. Dodgy polling might be one reason: the high-quality pollsters ignore the Sooner State but invariably some of the smaller outfits churn out a survey showing a close race. Ancestral Democrats are another: Oklahoma remained rather blue at the state level through the 2000s, so there are plenty of voters in the state who used to vote blue for governor. Special election results are also a factor: Dems have done well in recent years in lower-turnout affairs that attract only hardcore voters, and that includes a few in Oklahoma. But the 2026 race to replace term-limited governor Kevin Stitt might actually yield a close result. GOP nominee Mike Mazzei is a flawed candidate who won a very narrow and divisive primary runoff over attorney general Gentner Drummond. Mazzei had Trump’s endorsement but plenty of weaknesses. They include a lengthy history of absence from the public positions he has held. He understandably missed hundreds of votes in the state senate after a car accident in 2008, and then made only 10 of 40 meetings of the Oklahoma Police Pension and Retirement Board since being appointed in 2023. He recently took out an $11 million loan from his bank to finance his campaign. This is another farm state, and farmers have been hit hard by the effects of Trump’s economic and foreign policies. And there are indicators that hard feelings persist from some in Drummond’s camp. Can Democrat Cyndi Munson, the young minority leader in the state House of Representatives, pull off an upset that would usher in change of both a partisan and generational nature? Both parties seem to think it’s in play. The Democratic Governors Association is spending here, and Trump parachuted in to rally the Republican faithful. At minimum, a move off Safe is warranted. Safe Rep (on September 1) > Likely Rep (hold)

Oregon: Tina Kotek narrowly defeated Christine Drazan 47%-44% in 2022 to extend a Democratic winning streak in Oregon governor’s elections that reaches back to 1986. That 2022 race was a contest between each party’s respective leaders in the Oregon House, with conservative Democratic state senator Betsy Johnson taking over 8% as an independent candidate. Drazan was subsequently appointed to fill a vacancy in the Oregon senate, and they’re facing off again this year. Kotek is badly underwater with voters as she approaches the end of her first term: Oregon is an expensive state, Kotek raised taxes (which were partially repealed by voters in dramatic fashion this past May) and there are real problems with housing costs and homelessness that do not seem to be improving. In New York, Kathy Hochul rebounded by battling Trump, committing to building more housing, and working with Zohran Mamdani to expand access to child care; Kotek is trying to use Trump as a foil too but it’s not working as well. That may be in part because Trump’s anti-Canada policies impact a border state like New York more directly, but I suspect the other piece – having something to show for her term – is also impactful. I don’t know that Drazan is a special talent, and that might be what it takes to stop end 40 years of Democratic dominance in Oregon in a Dem-friendly year. But the race is tight and limited polling shows a trend toward Drazan. Lean Dem (on September 1) > Tilt Dem (hold)

In the next post, we’ll look at the final nine races for governor: Pennsylvania through Wyoming.

1. Seriously, do not draw conclusions from early voting numbers. Anywhere. But…take Ralston more seriously than the rest. ↩︎
2. Voters would do well to understand the governor’s constitutional powers in New York, and tremendous leverage a conservative governor would use the state’s budget process to force changes or shut the government down until he got them. It wouldn’t always work, but voters underestimate the potential power of a right-wing governor at their own peril. ↩︎