Within the Margin

We keep rolling with our brief-as-I-can-manage look at this year’s governor’s races. Today’s set includes one projected flip in each direction, including my lone projected Republican statehouse win.

We’re taking these thirty-six contests in alphabetical order, nine per article. For Alabama through Georgia, plus the chart showing the rating for each gubernatorial election, click here.

Hawaii: Republicans have not won a statewide race in deep-blue Hawaii since former governor Linda Lingle’s landslide re-election in 2006, when she defied a blue midterm wave. Democratic incumbent Josh Green is looking to keep that streak going against businessman Gary Cordery – who at first glance appears to be running a thoughtful campaign in some respects but with MAHA and anti-vaccine flavors mixed in. He’s being outraised 10:1 by Green, who Morning Consult’s polling identifies as the most popular Democratic governor in the country. Cordery could conceivably be the guy to win back Hawaii’s statehouse for Republicans at some point, but it won’t be this year. Safe Dem (hold)

Idaho: From one of the bluest states to one of the reddest states. Democrats last won a statewide election in Idaho when Superintendent of Public Instruction Marilyn Howard was re-elected in 2002. We do not have any reason to believe Brad Little will be denied a third term as governor, even with the national winds blowing against Republicans. Attorney Terri Pickens is well-regarded in her field, but so is Little: Morning Consult rates him the second-most popular Republican governor seeking re-election this year. Safe Rep (hold)

Illinois: Like Little, Democrat J.B. Pritzker is seeking a third term in a state friendly to his party. Pritzker did have to unseat a Republican back in 2018 to win the governorship, but did so decisively and then won comfortably four years later against Darren Bailey in a more difficult year for Dems. He and Bailey are facing off again this year. Bailey’s a deeply conservative former state legislator who opposes abortion rights even in cases of rape and incest, has flirted with impoverishing the state of Illinois by having Chicago break off as its own state, and has yet to accept that Trump lost the 2020 election. This is not a serious candidacy for Illinois, and does not present a speed bump to Pritzker as the gregariously combative incumbent eyes a 2028 presidential bid. Safe Dem (hold)

Iowa: Republican Governor Kim Reynolds chose not to seek re-election; her approval ratings were underwater but her husband’s recent bout with cancer may have played a role as well. To replace Reynolds, her party inexplicably elected Kansas resident Zach Lahn, who boasted endorsements from white supremacist former congressman Steve King and d-list actor Rob Schneider, over incumbent congressman Randy Feenstra. The latter was endorsed by Trump, which often suffices in GOP primaries, as well as former six-term governor Terry Branstad, retiring senator Joni Ernst, and so on. Obviously, endorsements from other politicians are not always decisive, but this was a particularly odd turn of events. It means that Lahn has to keep commuting into Iowa via private plane in order to campaign for the highest office in a state he acknowledges he does not live in. For their part, Democrats nominated the last member of their party still holding statewide office in Iowa: accomplished Auditor Rob Sand, who previously worked as a prosecutor unearthing the largest lotto fraud in American history. Sand hails from Decorah – home to the Vesterheim, of course – and is one of those small-town guys who never stopped being comfortable in every corner of Iowa, talking to any kind of Iowan. He manages to walk that fine line where he’s polished but not in a way that makes you think he’s been working at it his whole career. Sand is arguably the best candidate Democrats have nominated this cycle, and that comes in a year with plenty of strong recruits. He has consistently led polling – not by landslide margins, but comfortably. He’s going to win back the governorship for the first time since 2010. Lean Dem (flip)

Kansas: Speaking of Kansas, this is Republicans’ best shot at flipping a governorship this year. Laura Kelly is term-limited, and there’s only so many great statewide Democratic candidates available in a red state like Kansas (and one of them, Adam Hamilton, is running for Senate). State senator Cindy Holscher is the Democratic nominee after campaigning in the primary against $1.8 billion in state bonds for the Chiefs’ new stadium on the Kansas side of the border. Her colleague, Kansas Senate president Ty Masterson, has Trump’s endorsement but also his bizarre admonition that defeat would be the “single biggest upset in the United States, maybe in the history of our country.” An odd characterization, perhaps, but not as strange as Masterson’s assertions that witchcraft is afoot in his race. More likely to impact Masterson is his support for former governor Sam Brownback’s fiscal policies, which Kansas Dems (and credit ratings agencies) argue led to massive state debt and a credit downgrade. That helped make Kelly governor in the first place back in 2018. I’m not sure memories are that long, and limited Kansas polling has shown Masterson holding up better than his embattled compatriot Roger Marshall. This one is coming down to the wire, though, and I wouldn’t be shocked if I make a late move in the other direction. Tilt Rep (flip)

Maine: The Pine Tree State’s Senate race garners all the attention, but there’s an open seat race for governor. Democratic governor Janet Mills is term-limited. Former Maine House Speaker Hannah Pingree, whose mother represents part of the state in Congress, won a complicated and competitive primary for the Democratic nomination. In this state and this blue year, that makes her the strong general election favorite against Bobby Charles, a lawyer and former Bush administration official. Charles has struggled to make inroads and has consistently trailed in the low double digits. Likely Dem (hold)

Maryland: Republicans had one of the most popular governors in the country here for eight years, when Larry Hogan bucked the state’s usual partisanship to win two elections. The state reverted to its usual leanings in 2022, electing Army veteran, investment banker and author Wes Moore. He’s a possible contender for the presidency or vice presidency in 2028, assuming he can win a rematch with Dan Cox. Moore defeated Cox 64%-32% four year ago, but the conservative attorney, election denier, former state delegate and frequent candidate is back for more. Cox will lose by a similar margin, again, and it’s anyone’s guess as to whether he’ll accept the results. Safe Dem (hold)

Massachusetts: Like Maryland, the deep-blue Bay State elected a Republican governor in 2014 and 2018 (and in 1990, 1994, 1998 and 2002, for that matter). And like Maryland, Massachusetts elected a Dem (Maura Healey) over a hardcore Trumper in 2022. She’ll win easily this year over West Point grad and med-tech CEO Mike Minogue, too. Minogue is spending record sums of his own money on the race but running a standard conservative campaign – including opposition to abortion rights – despite running in, yes, Massachusetts. Currently, Minogue is dealing with the implosion of his running mate, Shawn Oliver. That’ll be the most newsworthy item to come out of his race, sadly. Safe Dem (hold)

Michigan: A blue wave year should mean relatively easy wins in one of the country’s true 50-50 swing states. The U.S. Senate race isn’t quite playing out that way, but the governor’s race appears to be. Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is one of the more active and visible state-level election chiefs in the country and is putting up consistent, solid leads in her campaign to keep the governorship in Democratic hands after Gretchen Whitmer’s wins in 2018 and 2022. Two-term Republican congressman John James was once a GOP rising star but just never gained traction, in part because he took too long to distance himself from an unpopular president. The Republican Governors Association withdrew its financial support for James earlier his month, though the state party came through with a late and potentially illegal injection of funds from the DeVos family to get James back on the air. Benson’s not a lock by any means, but I nearly moved this into the likely column this time around. Lean Dem (hold)

In the next post, we’ll take a look at the next nine governors’ races – from Minnesota through Oregon.