House Race Capsules: Great Lakes
Alright, now we’re back in competitive territory, with some seats changing hands in both directions. Lots to unpack here thanks to an independent commission in Michigan, a court-selected map in Wisconsin, and a trio of partisan maps. First the overview:
And now on to the state-by-state breakdowns.
Read more…House Race Capsules: Border South (KY, MO, WV)
Kentucky, Missouri and West Virginia: a trio of ancestrally Democratic states without competitive Congressional races this cycle, though each got there a little bit differently. Here’s the zoomed-out look…
…and now let’s talk about each of the three states.
Read more…House Race Capsules: Southeast
No independent commissions and plenty of fresh Republican gerrymanders mean this group of states is badly lacking in competitive races. Let’s take a look at the map and then some quick state summaries.
Onto the individual states.
Read more…House Race Capsules: Florida
A look at the final forecast map before breaking down the competitive races in a state that seems to be hurtling away from Democrats in recent years, and never more than this cycle (click to enlarge map):
Let’s drill down into what’s happening here.
Read more…House Race Capsules: Virginia and the Carolinas
There is no longer a competitive district in the Palmetto State, alas, but Virginia and North Carolina offer some hotly contested and vitally important Congressional races.
First, a look at all three states, and then we’ll zoom in individually and present some analysis.
On to the states!
Read more…House Race Capsules: Mid-Atlantic (DE, MD, NJ, PA)
This set of states builds to a crescendo – nothing competitive in Delaware, then one notable race in Maryland, a trio in Jersey, and finally a quintet of notable contests in Pennsylvania.
We’ll start with a zoomed-out look at the final forecast map for the region:
Now, onto the individual states.
Read more…House Race Capsules: New England
We’ll start with a zoomed-out look at the final forecast map for the region:
Now, on to the competitive seats in each of New England’s states.
Read more…House Race Capsules: New York
Let’s get a look at the final forecast map before breaking down the competitive races:
Next, we’ll go district-by-district for the competitive seats.
Read more…House Update, 11/6/2022
In the regional updates to follow, I’ll walk folks through my thought process with where each of the competitive seats stand. First, the full map of what I anticipate are my final House ratings for 2022. After the map, a list of changes since my October 21 update.
Click through for interactive map. Remember, that very gray shade of blue is the Tilt Dem seats. No toss-ups here. The idea here is to tell you where my instincts say things are going, not to say, “ehhh, toss-up, who knows?”
Read more…Senate Update, 10/30/2022
Anyone following the news of the last week would be expecting some movement toward the Republicans in this Senate update. The past week saw the Fetterman/Oz debate that launched a unsympathetic and generally insensitive national media narrative regarding Fetterman’s stroke recovery and his accompanying difficulties in the debate format, plus a bevy of Senate polls showing pro-Republican movement in several states even as some of the generic ballot House polls showed the opposite. And indeed, I was initially planning to move four races one step in the GOP’s direction – Arizona, Georgia and New Hampshire from Lean Dem to Tilt Dem, and Pennsylvania from Tilt Dem to Tilt Rep. But longtime collaborator Matt Clausen has tempered my instincts a bit here. He rightly notes that the preponderance of Senate polling in recent days has come from GOP-aligned polling firms. That doesn’t mean they’re wrong! Trafalgar, for one, redeemed themselves in 2020 by catching a lot of Trump support that other firms were missing. But methodologically they remain problematic, and some of these firms have been far enough out of step on polls this year that we have to view them with caution. I’m thinking here of co/efficient in particular. Add to that stew some GOP-sponsored polls and we don’t have a lot to work with. New Hampshire actually does have a more solid-footing firm that has taken a recent look at the race; Emerson found a four-point lead for Hassan. Does that warrant a move from Lean to Tilt? Let me see more.
And as far as the Fetterman situation goes, we have to combine that lack of non-aligned firms with the fact that Oz made mistakes in that debate, too – most notably, his assertion that the decision to have an abortion should involve one’s local political leaders. Matt is inclined to wait on shifting all four races; I’m still comfortable shifting one of them:
In my view, what’s different here is that Kelly is about to face $5 million in spending on his behalf in a race where Kelly has frequently had the advantage in the air wars, and Arizona’s other statewide races don’t seem to have any organizational strength – so if Kelly slips, he won’t have as much help arresting that slide. He maintains the edge in polling, though, and he maintains the edge in our rating here.
The map, with the lone update:
As always remember that blueish-gray color is Tilt Dem. And click here for the interactive map.
Within the Margin 