Within the Margin

We’ve finally reached the end of the Louisiana gubernatorial campaign. Much like the Kentucky race that ended in a win for Democratic challenger Andy Beshear, I have long thought that the Democratic candidate – in this case, incumbent John Bel Edwards – has a narrow but consistent edge. The polling average shows the same, with JBE ahead by less than two points. Call it a tie for all intents and purposes because <2 points is really too close to call and I’m continually worried by pollsters’ difficulty in getting rural, conservative voters to participate in opinion surveys. But we don’t do “too close to call” here at WTM, so our call follows at the bottom of this piece. And if you’re interested in Louisiana election, make sure to give Miles Coleman a follow on Twitter: the man has forgotten more about Louisiana politics than I’ll ever know. He has broken down this race, and Louisiana trends, with far more complexity than I can do in this piece.

From my distant-but-emotionally-invested vantage point, I have a few simple comments:

• I always felt better about JBE’s chances against Ralph Abraham, the Congressman from northeast Louisiana’s 5th district, than against businessman Eddie Rispone. At a time when “outsider” candidates often get a benefit of the doubt relative to elected officials, Rispone seemed a better fit for a state that holds the current iconoclastic president in high esteem. Throw in Abraham’s record as one of the state’s highest prescribers of opioids during his time as a physician and his subsequent allegiance to opioid manufacturers as a Congressman, and you’re looking at someone who offers a swampy contrast to JBE’s combination of a West Point background and rural Louisana values.  Sure enough, voters in Louisiana’s all-party “jungle primary” preferred Rispone over Abraham by a little under four points, resulting in a tougher fight for JBE in the general.

• Republicans combined for more votes than Democrats in the primary. Not the most encouraging stat, but far from deterministic. JBE was always going to make the runoff at minimum, and while his campaign was highly motivated to avoid a runoff entirely by clearing 50% to win outright in October, the existence of two Republican campaigns pushing out their supporters with even greater urgency always made it a tricky proposition to pull off that early win. And looking back at 2015, Edwards rose from 39.9% in the primary to 56.1% in the general election. Caveats apply, of course: he was running against the deeply flawed David Vitter in the general, and one of the vanquished Republicans endorsed JBE. Those factors don’t apply here, as Rispone lacks anything quite like Vitter’s baggage and Abraham quickly endorsed him after the primary.

• Jefferson Parish is a source of fascination. Anchored by Metairie, it is the second-largest parish in Louisiana – more populous than New Orleans, the city it borders. It is primarily suburban and for decades was one of the most Republican parishes in Louisiana, launching the careers of prominent conservative politicians and regularly providing statewide GOP candidates a cushion of 30-50,000 votes. But the Trump era has seen Republican fortunes erode in many suburbs, and Jefferson is full of the educated professionals that have been swinging hard to Democrats. Trump ran almost three points behind Romney’s 2012 performance here (55% to 58%) while Hillary Clinton became the first Democratic presidential nominee to crack 40% since Bill Clinton in 1996 when he was easily carrying the state. And a year before, JBE narrowly edged out Vitter, becoming the first Democratic nominee for governor to carry Jefferson Parish since 1991 when Edwin Edwards defeated David Duke. OK, so you’re thinking that as long as Republican don’t nominate a literal Klansman or frequenter of D.C. prostitutes as their candidate, they should fine in Jefferson, right? Not so fast: JBE received 52.9% of Jefferson’s vote in the primary last month. We’re seeing Democrats win over previously-red suburbs rapidly and thoroughly in major metro areas across the country during Trump’s presidency, above and beyond Hillary’s 2016 performance. That goes for the DFW and Houston ‘burbs in Beto O’Rourke’s Senate race last year, the Birmingham suburbs in Doug Jones win in 2017, the Louisville and Lexington suburbs in Kentucky’s gubernatorial race earlier this month, and of course the near-total wipeout of Republicans up and down the ballot in the northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C. Those areas are not all created the same; some started from bluer shades of purple than others. But we have every reason to believe that JBE is poised to significantly grow his 1,269-vote lead in the parish.

• And grow it he must, because the primary showed substantial erosion for JBE in rural Louisiana. The flipside to Democratic gains around the country in suburban areas has been ongoing struggle and in some cases further losses in exurban and rural counties, and that was in evidence in Louisiana in the primary. Edwards ran 15-20 points behind his general election showing in some of the northeast Louisiana parishes where he’ll lose today, but can’t lose as badly as in the primary. It’s an open question whether he’ll regain some ground in those parishes now that Abraham is out of the picture.

• In terms of size, Calcasieu Parish offers an interesting “in-between” question relative to Jefferson and the rural parishes. Home to Lake Charles and a significant stronghold of the petrochemical industry, Calcasieu gave JBE over 58% in 2015. Trump would win it with 64% a year later, which makes sense given Trump’s opposition to environmental regulations that Lake Charles residents see as endangering local industry (for a great analysis of this borne out of extensive in-person, on-the-ground research, see Arlie Russell Hochschild’s insightful and respectful Strangers in their Own Land). In the primary last month, Calcasieu gave JBE 43.6% – a fifteen-point drop from the 2015 general. JBE can afford a decent-sized drop off from his 2015 numbers, but not fifteen points in populous parishes like this one.

• On balance, the early voting figures are encouraging, with a notable uptick from the primary in African-American participation. 31% of the early voting electorate was African-American. If JBE replicates that number in election day turnout, or comes anywhere close, he’ll be in pretty good shape. On the other hand, the secretary of state is predicting 51% turnout, indicating a higher-than-usual level of enthusiasm for this runoff. That may mean that efforts by the Republican Governors Association (pouring millions into the race) and Trump (rallying in Louisiana yet again this past Thursday night) may be yielding fruit for Rispone’s campaign. Quotes from Democratic officials indicate that JBE’s turnout operation has been solid (beware anecdotal commentary about campaigns, though).

My instincts tell me to look at the success Democrats have had on health care messaging across the country and take encouragement from JBE’s strong work on Medicaid expansion, and Rispone’s pledge to freeze to that expansion, which has done Louisiana and the rest of the country tremendous good in expanding coverage. Chris Lee, a wise analyst of Southern politics, notes that this race is critical for the half-million Louisianans who rely on that expansion. Thanks to demographics and the migration of upscale urban/suburban dwellers to the Democratic Party, I’m expecting Orleans Parish to be bluer than ever after a primary that showed Lakeview (the most conservative part of the city) trending solidly blue. Likewise, I’m expecting JBE to build on his 2015 victory in Jefferson. These factors coupled with positive early voting trends have me thinking JBE survives the erosion in southwest Lousiana and the rural parishes, and holds on for a very narrow victory. This one receives our tightest call: Tilt Democratic (hold).