Within the Margin

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The final Senate map above is, like the electoral college map, on the conservative side. All the upside is with Democrats, who face one likely loss in a seat they currently hold (Doug Jones in Alabama) and one longshot potential loss (Gary Peters in Michigan). The rest of the map is safe holds or possible pickups. It gives them five pickups, for a net gain of four after the Jones loss. Those come in Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Maine and North Carolina. As recently as two weeks ago, Iowa would have been included in that list. But Joni Ernst has remarkably pulled ahead despite a rough finish, including a high-profile debate stumble when she couldn’t answer a basic question about agriculture commodity prices despite presenting herself as a “farm girl” and ag champion. Whatever the reason, Greenfield hasn’t been able to close – though she remains in striking distance.

So too are several other Democratic candidates, and if everything goes swimmingly for Dems on the night, their upside is in the high 50s, like 2008. Steve Bullock was the only Dem who could put the Montana seat in play and indeed he has. Independent Al Gross is executing brilliantly in Alaska, where nothing short of that is good enough for Dems. Jaime Harrison has been a discovery in South Carolina. Mike Espy is a tough out in Mississippi, where Cindy Hyde-Smith escaped with an eight-point win in 2018 and has opted to essentially ignore the campaign this time rather than make more of the mistakes she was notorious for in the previous contest. Barbara Bollier would have beaten Kris Kobach in Kansas, but the Republicans nominated the right guy and likely get through the cycle unscathed. MJ Hegar is giving John Cornyn his toughest race yet in Texas, but Cornyn seems to be winning enough anti-Trump voters to survive Texas’ rapid purpling.

All in all, the political fundamentals of these states appear to have kept seats just out of reach, meaning Democrats likely win a thin 51-49 majority rather than achieving breathing room in the Senate. That’ll rule out cabinet posts for Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, who would be replaced by appointees chosen by their states’ Republican governors. But remember what I said about upside at the top…if it turns out to be a Biden landslide, more Dems should eke out wins.