Within the Margin

The First State offers a dearth of state or federal electoral competition these days, with Democrats dominating to a greater extent than presidential results would lead one to assume. The state GOP is moribund, seemingly unable to recruit competitively. They lost their last two statewide offices, Treasurer and Auditor, in the 2018 Democratic wave. In 2022, Democrats tended to struggle in much bluer strongholds (like California and New York, while performing quite well in purple states) but the races in Delaware for Attorney General, Treasurer and Auditor all yielded solid eight-point Democratic wins, while the lone federal race on the ballot was a twelve-point Democratic victory. Further downballot, Republicans lost another seat in the state senate: where once they were tied 10-10 with a shot to flip the chamber in an early 2017 special election, they’re now reduced to a super-minority at 15-6. The situation in the other state legislative chamber is similar, with a 26-15 Democratic majority. Dems have held the Delaware Senate since 1974 and the Delaware House since 2008.

The Presidency – 3 electoral votes
Delaware last voted for a Republican presidential nominee in 1988 (George H.W. Bush); back then, the First State’s preference typically matched the nation’s. Delaware voted for the winner in 12 consecutive elections, from 1952 through 1996 before settling into a now-lengthy Dem streak.

Nowadays, Democratic margins in presidential contests here range from comfortable to landslides. Favorite son Joe Biden fared well on the 2008, 2012 and 2020 tickets; there’s little reason to believe Kamala Harris will be far behind his showings.
2024 Rating: Safe Democratic

Senate Deliberations
Open seat: Lisa Blunt Rochester (D) vs. Eric Hansen (R)
Previous Senate results in Delaware: 2020 – Chris Coons (D) 59.4%, Lauren Witzke (37.9%); 2018 – Tom Carper (D) 59.95%, Rob Arlett (R) 37.8%
Four-term Democrat Tom Carper, who flipped this Senate seat in 2000, is retiring. He’s the final Vietnam Veteran serving in the Senate, making this something of an end to an era. At-large congressmember Lisa Blunt Rochester is heavily favored in the race to succeed him. Previously a longtime state government official, she’s the first woman and first African American to represent Delaware in Congress. She’ll also be the first to do so in the Senate, barring a stunning turn of events. She’s the fourth consecutive holder of the at-large House seat to retire to seek statewide office, which makes sense given the statewide nature of the House seat.

The last competitive U.S. Senate race in Delaware was in 2010, when Joe Biden’s ascension to the vice presidency necessitated a special election. Appointed placeholder Ted Kaufman did not seek a full term, but popular moderate Republican Mike Castle did. Previously governor and at-large Congressman, Castle was a household name in Delaware and the safest Senate recruit Republicans had that cycle…until the Tea Party decided they could not abide him. Noted non-witch Christine O’Donnell rode conservative discontent with “establishment” Republicans to a primary victory, and then rode normal-person discontent with unqualified extremists to a general election defeat against New Castle County executive Chris Coons. The Republican nominee this year is Eric Hansen, who does not appear to be a witch or an extremist but is something of a cipher; he has a background in business and management but is oddly vague on his website about what he currently does. Lisa Blunt Rochester should have no trouble dispatching him.
2024 Rating: Safe Democratic (hold)

House Calls
Delaware sends a single at large representative to the United States House of Representatives and has for nearly all of its history; the exception was 1813-1823 when it briefly had two seats. It has been a safely Democratic seat in recent times. The last time it was competitive was 2010 when its longtime moderate Republican incumbent Mike Castle departed to run for Senate. That year brought a massive Republican wave but Delaware had become blue enough that its Congressional race went in the opposite direction – one of only three House seats that year that went red-to-blue.

John Carney was the winner that year. He in turn left to run successfully for governor in 2016, and was succeeded by Lisa Blunt Rochester. She’s leaving to run for Senate, as discussed above. The next representative will almost certainly be state senator Sarah McBride. She’s the country’s first openly transgender state senator and would be the first such member of Congress as well. On the Republican side, the winner of a low-octane primary was state policeman and construction worker John J. Whalen III; he has little money and unlikely to have much of a shot in the general election. As you’ll see below, Delaware’s at-large seat used to flip all the time – but the death of two things has rendered it non-competitive for some time now: ticket-splitting, and the viability of the Delaware Republican Party. That trend continues in 2024.
Past flips: 1850, 1854 (Know-Nothings), 1856, 1860 (Union), 1862, 1863 special (Union), 1864, 1872, 1874, 1894, 1896, 1898, 1902, 1904, 1912, 1914, 1916, 1918, 1922, 1924, 1932, 1934, 1936, 1938, 1940, 1942, 1944, 1946, 1954, 1956, 1958, 1966, 1982, 1992, 2010. (with many Congressional districts, it’s impossible to do a good comparison because maps change every ten years. Not so with a statewide seat! And check out that stretch from 1932 to 1946 where the seat changed hands every two years – eight elections in a row.)
2024 Rating: Safe Democratic (hold)

Governor
Open seat: Matt Meyer (D) vs. Mike Ramone (R)
Previous result: 2020 – John Carney (D) 59.5%, Julianne Murray (38.6%)
New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer seeks to extend the Democratic winning streak in Delaware gubernatorial elections to nine this year; incumbent John Carney is term-limited after eight years. Meyer won a competitive primary over lieutenant governor Bethany Hall-Long and National Wildlife Federation president Collin O’Mara. Hall-Long was beset with ethical and potentially legal questions over campaign contributions, to the extent this race might have become competitive had she been the nominee. But she faded as the September 10 primary drew near, and Meyer pulled away for a 47-37 victory with O’Mara managing 16% in third place. Meyer now faces longtime state representative and minority leader Mike Ramone, who easily dispatched two primary foes of his own. He nearly lost his state House seat in 2022, winning by just 35 votes. He’s not an electoral force per se but he’s running as a moderate, appropriate for Delaware: the first issue listed on his website is education, the second is protecting women’s reproductive rights, and the third is protecting LGBTQ+ rights. It’s a small business-oriented, good government campaign that would probably have some resonance given the nation’s economic mood and Delaware’s single-party dominance…but with Donald Trump atop the ballot and RINO-hunters on the prowl, it becomes harder for moderate-to-liberal Republicans to carve out their own distinct profile. Trump is all-consuming and Republicans are unlikely to win a statewide race in Delaware – even with a reasonable candidate – during his reign over the party.
2024 Rating: Safe Democratic (hold)