Within the Margin

While the Harris/Walz campaign maintains a laser-like focus on the seven states universally considered to be swing states in this presidential campaign (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin), the Trump campaign is taking a somewhat different approach. They’re hitting those states still, but also mixing in large, attention-grabbing events in blue states. Recent stops in Aurora and Coachella are not an indication that they’re remotely competitive in Colorado or California. Nor does Trump’s upcoming date to finally play Madison Square Garden mean he can win New York (though it’ll be tighter than 2016 and 2020 in the Empire State). So what’s he up to?

The Trump campaign argues that these events are necessary to ensure “the media cannot look away and refuse to cover” what their candidate is doing and proposing. Putting aside his campaign’s propensity to say things that are not true, this claim strains credulity because the Trump campaign has no trouble – zilch, nada, none – getting “the media” to cover everything they say and do. The campaign shut down a McDonald’s for an afternoon so Trump could hand French fries to five carefully-selected, non-paying customers, and you won’t have any trouble finding coverage of this non-event.

Democratic observers meanwhile have suggested that these events keep Trump’s profile a little bit lower in swing states at a time when more Trump is not necessarily better for the handful of remaining undecided voters. I’m not persuaded by that; as Ed Kilgore notes, his rallies have some virality regardless of where he does them. Inside the conservative bubble, they’ll argue that it demonstrates that his 2024 campaign is a nationwide cultural phenomenon; mainstream media will reinforce that in the course of normal reporting. Exposure is a feature and never a bug when it comes to the Trump campaign.

When Trump did an event at the Nassau Coliseum (I’m not going to call it by its weird corporate name; we all know it as the Coliseum – or Mausoleum for us Rangers fans) in mid-September, I assumed it was all about ginning up enthusiasm and engagement for Congressional races: there’s a couple of competitive district on Long Island and several more in the Hudson Valley, so an NYC-area rally served to focus attention on seats the Republicans need to preserve and expand their slim majority in the House of Representatives. That holds true for the Coachella rally too, as southern California is host to a number of competitive House seats. Aurora is the focal point of Colorado’s lone competitive House race this year.

To the extent Trump thinks about actual governance and the majorities that facilitate them, there’s a logic to pursuing these events and maximizing his side’s turnout. That said…it’s somewhat presumptuous to pursue downballot supremacy when you haven’t locked up the presidential contest yet. Maybe his internal polling says he’s home and dry, but public polling still shows a coin flip. This may be why some have located a more sinister aspect: this thread from Veterans for Responsible Leadership suggests that Trump is looking to work the rank and file into a frenzy in populous states like California and New York where his supporters are clearly a minority, but are huge in terms of raw numbers. It’s a dark thread, suggesting that the goal of that frenzy is to produce the shock troops to enforce Trump’s inevitable declaration of victory no matter what the vote count actually says. Taegan Goddard, meanwhile, argues that it’s about the House…but not simply a majority. It’s about a majority that will demand a fully Trump-aligned Speaker of the House when it comes time to count electoral votes. Leverage does seem to be a concept Trump understands well enough, so I could see Taegan being right.

I can see any of the above being plausible, but I think Occam’s Razor implies that the biggest showman wants to do the biggest shows, in places that generate bigger headlines. So that means Aurora, which he wants people to believe is overrun by Venezuelan gangs (local law enforcement dismisses Trump’s claim). It means Coachella, home of a festival of some cultural import (Trump understands little as well as he understands a crowd). And it means Madison Square Garden, in his native New York City (many have pointed to the 1939 Nazi rally at MSG as an inspiration, though I suspect Trump’s knowledge there is passing while his obsession with the city’s iconic venue is enduring).

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For the record, I tend to think the unbelievably well-funded Harris campaign would be smart to do some big events in places where they could draw a crowd and dominate local media coverage for a day or two even if they can’t win the state this year. Think Nashville, or New Orleans, or any number of cities in Texas. They should do it not because it stimulates bored political reporters or placates “the base” – but because it would reinforce the Harris/Walz campaign’s message of unity for all Americans, as something bigger than strategic considerations. It would signal that they have something to everyone – even those outside the only seven states thought to matter in presidential politics. It would be a good investment in today’s messaging and tomorrow’s campaign infrastructure.