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House Race Capsules: Southeast
No independent commissions and plenty of fresh Republican gerrymanders mean this group of states is badly lacking in competitive races. Let’s take a look at the map and then some quick state summaries.
Onto the individual states.
Read more…House Race Capsules: Florida
A look at the final forecast map before breaking down the competitive races in a state that seems to be hurtling away from Democrats in recent years, and never more than this cycle (click to enlarge map):
Let’s drill down into what’s happening here.
Read more…House Race Capsules: Virginia and the Carolinas
There is no longer a competitive district in the Palmetto State, alas, but Virginia and North Carolina offer some hotly contested and vitally important Congressional races.
First, a look at all three states, and then we’ll zoom in individually and present some analysis.
On to the states!
Read more…House Race Capsules: Mid-Atlantic (DE, MD, NJ, PA)
This set of states builds to a crescendo – nothing competitive in Delaware, then one notable race in Maryland, a trio in Jersey, and finally a quintet of notable contests in Pennsylvania.
We’ll start with a zoomed-out look at the final forecast map for the region:
Now, onto the individual states.
Read more…House Race Capsules: New England
We’ll start with a zoomed-out look at the final forecast map for the region:
Now, on to the competitive seats in each of New England’s states.
Read more…House Race Capsules: New York
Let’s get a look at the final forecast map before breaking down the competitive races:
Next, we’ll go district-by-district for the competitive seats.
Read more…House Update, 11/6/2022
In the regional updates to follow, I’ll walk folks through my thought process with where each of the competitive seats stand. First, the full map of what I anticipate are my final House ratings for 2022. After the map, a list of changes since my October 21 update.
Click through for interactive map. Remember, that very gray shade of blue is the Tilt Dem seats. No toss-ups here. The idea here is to tell you where my instincts say things are going, not to say, “ehhh, toss-up, who knows?”
Read more…
Within the Margin 