Within the Margin

We finish with the non-contiguous United States, where Democrats currently control all three Congressional seats for the first time since 1972.

Alaska – 1 seat

Current: 1 Dem

Projected: 1 Dem

Mary Peltola has become a rising star for Dems after riding her “fish, family, freedom” platform to victory over Sarah Palin in an August special election. She’s the first Dem to win this seat since Nick Begich’s death in 1972. This was the first election utitizing Alaska’s ranked choice system, and Peltola received enough second-choice votes from supporters of Palin (a few) and NIck Begich III (many more), the two Republicans in the race. The same trio – the younger Republican Begich is the grandson of the former Dem congressman – is on the ballot for the November election, with the same ranked voting dynamic in place. Alaska is notoriously hard to poll but Peltola leads decisively, with a palpable sense of excitement from local Dems and and ongoing split between the Republican contenders. In a year where Dems are threatened in some of their bluer terrain, Alaska presents an intriguing frontier for a major hold. Tilt Dem.

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Hawaii – 2 seats

Current: 2 Dems

Projected: 2 Dems

Both of Hawaii’s seats voted for Biden by 30 points. Republicans last won a Hawaii Congressional seat in a three-way 2010 special; the winner, Charles Djou, went on to lose in the general election that fall. These days, Djou is an independent who endorsed Biden in 2020 and both of Hawaii’s seats are utterly safe.