Within the Margin

I’ve made three changes to my gubernatorial ratings in the final days of the campaign, and I want to address each of them very briefly. Updated map to follow at the end.

New Mexico. Some reputable pollsters arrived on the scene in late October to give us a fresher look at this race. They showed Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) with leads of 2, 7 and 8 points. That averages out to a pretty good lead, but the two-pointer warrants caution – as does the fact that Trafalgar shows well-known meteorologist Mark Ronchetti, who ran a closer-than-expected ran for U.S. Senate in 2020, up by a point. Trafalgar is much-maligned for a lack of transparency and some woeful 2018 results; they also get credit for being more right than most in 2020. I don’t think their poll alone warrants a move, but Lujan Grisham has had a rocky first term and the mixed polling leaves me wanting to hedge a little bit more. Moves from Lean Dem to Tilt Dem.

Oklahoma. Republican-turned-Democrat Joy Hofmeister is running a remarkable campaign, capitalizing on voter discontent over a controversial school voucher program and the sense that incumbent Republican governor Kevin Stitt is combative, erratic and ideological. This deep-red state has a lot of voters who were Democrats in local and state races for many years and might be finding Hofmeister more palatable as a party-switcher than if she had come up through the modern Democratic ranks. Hofmeister also seems to have tremendous support from the state’s teachers, who sense an opportunity to finalize move past recent hostilities over labor and vouchers. Various polls from less-than-gold-standard pollsters have shown the race close or Hofmeister ahead; a late October poll from the more-respected Emerson College polling outfit showed Stitt up ten points. The energy and organization in the ground, the united front from Oklahoma’s tribal nations, and the telling moves by outlets like the Tulsa World to make a rare Democratic endorsement – these factors all tell me that the race is close. In a year where blue New York’s governor race is quite close, so too does red Oklahoma’s seem to be. To the extent momentum exists in politics, Hofmeister seems to have it. Moves from Likely Rep to Lean Rep.

Oregon. After months of Republicans appearing to be on the verge of their first gubernatorial win in Oregon since 1982, the race has shifted measurably. Independent candidate Betsy Johnson, a moderate Democratic state representative has seen her polling drop from the low-to-mid teens to mid-to-high single digits. Independent candidates tend to underperform their polling, so we may yet see her drop further when all is said and done. As Johnson falls, Democratic nominee Tina Kotek is rising. She’s now in the mid-40s or maybe even a tad higher, and if she’s approaching 50% she’s going to be fine. Christine Drazan has run a solid race but now seems to be falling just short. WTM collaborator Matt Clausen predicted this, and the race is now tilting toward vindicating his confidence. Moves from Tilt Rep to Tilt Dem.

Here’s my final gubernatorial map:

Click here for the interactive map.