Within the Margin

There is no longer a competitive district in the Palmetto State, alas, but Virginia and North Carolina offer some hotly contested and vitally important Congressional races.

First, a look at all three states, and then we’ll zoom in individually and present some analysis.

On to the states!

North Carolina – 14 seats, after gaining one from the 2020 Census.

Current: 8 Reps, 5 Dems

Projected: 8 Reps, 6 Dems

North Carolina gains a new safely-Democratic seat in the Charlotte area. There are several competitive seats on the rest of this court-drawn map.

NC-1: Retiring Democrat G.K. Butterfield leaves behind a largely unchanged, Black-majority district in rural eastern North Carolina. Biden carried it by about nine points and state senator Dan Davis seems well-positioned to hold it for Dems. The Republicans have chosen a bizarre, unhinged far-right activist named Sandy Smith. She was accused by a former husband of hitting him in the face with an alarm clock and by another ex-husband of driving at him with her car. As you’d imagine, she was at the Capitol on January 6. Republicans aren’t bothering much with her campaign but if this ends up being as good a year as their people  claim it will be, she could win anyway. People like her get swept in with a wave all the time. Likely Dem.

NC-6: Kathy Manning flipped this seat after a court-ordered redistricting changed the map for the 2020 elections. That was a safe seat; the new NC-6 is half as blue but still strongly supported by Biden (by 12.6 points). It continues to be based in Greensboro but loses most of Winston-Salem, replacing it with rural/exurban areas along the Virginia border, including Eden and Yanceyville. Christian Castelli doesn’t seem to have much going on, so Manning should be fine unless the red wave is as big as the GOP wants us to think it is. Likely Dem.

NC-13: The median district in the country in terms of partisanship! It takes in part of southern Raleigh and its suburbs, then stretches to Wilson’s Mills, Mount Olive and Goldsboro. It voted for Biden by two points and pits attorney Wiley Nickel, a moderate Dem with a cool name, against Bo Hines, a young Trump disciple who campaigns on cost of living issues but does not actually have a job himself, simply drawing money from his trust fund. Naturally, the race is close. The last two polls show small leads for Nickel, but I struggle to trust polling in NC given recent history there. I shifted it from Lean to Tilt Rep but don’t feel comfortable going more than that.

---

South Carolina – 7 seats

Current: 6 Reps, 1 Dem

Projected: 6 Reps, 1 Dem

Dems briefly added a South Carolina seat when Joe Cunningham flipped the Charleston-based first district in 2018, but he was narrowly defeated by Nancy Mace in 2020. Republican legislators in Columbia redrew SC-1 to put it well out of reach for the time being. As a result, the only Dem seat remains the Black-majority 6th – and there are no competitive House races here in 2022.

---

Virginia – 11 seats

Current: 7 Dems, 4 Reps

Projected: 7 Dems, 4 Reps

Virginia’s new independent redistricting commission deadlocked and failed to produce a map, so Virginians will vote along lines drawn by the state Supreme Court. Partisanship of the various districts doesn’t change much.

VA-2: Second-term incumbent Dem Elaine Luria’s district is based in Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Chesapeake and Suffolk. It was made slightly more Republican in redistricting, and Biden +3 it’s squarely in the GOP crosshairs this cycle. She’s facing state senator Jen Kiggans and the only public poll in October showed the race even. I think Luria is a strong incumbent in a race where the heavy naval presence means that January 6 and Luria’s work on the investigatory committee helps her more than most. Tilt Dem.

VA-7: Another 2018 intake Dem with natsec credentials is the 7th district’s Abigail Spanberger; her seat got five points bluer in redistricting. It stretches from Fredericksburg through Stafford up to Woodridge, and the northern part probably is more attuned to her pro-democracy messaging than some. Spanberger has also taken care to differentiate herself from more controversial leftist Dems. Her opponent is Yesli Vega, who has associated herself with fairly extreme positions. Feels like the contrast here is an easy choice even for this very swingy district. Lean Dem.

VA-10: I’m not buying that Republicans have put this northern Virginia seat back in play. Just because Republican spent somewhere doesn’t mean pundits have to play along. Biden carried it by 18.5 and Wexton is a proven vote-getter. Safe Dem.