Within the Margin

We’ll start with a zoomed-out look at the final forecast map for the region:

Now, on to the competitive seats in each of New England’s states.

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Connecticut – 5 seats

Current: 5 Dems

Projected: 5 Dems

Heading into 2006, Republicans controlled three of the Nutmeg State’s five seats. Dems flipped 2 and 5 that year and added CT-4 in 2008. Now, Republicans have their best chance in a while at taking one back.

CT-2: Eastern Connecticut, including New London and the Quiet Corner. Joe Courtney has held this for Dems with little drama since 2006, but this section of the state has moved a bit toward Republicans over the last decade. There was some thinking that they could put it in play this time around, but a GOP pollster showed Courtney up by 21 in late October. I had this Likely Dem on October 21, but it’s now Safe Dem.

CT-5: Northwest Connecticut, including the Litchfield Hills, Danbury, Waterbury, Meriden, New Britain, and parts of Torrington. Technically, Biden won CT-5 by a bit more than CT-2, but this is the far more competitive seat. Like CT-2, it has been Dem-held since 2006, but Jahana Hayes is only in her second term and faces a live challenger in George Logan, a former state senator as well as the frontman for a Jimi Hendrix tribute band. Logan flipped a senate seat for Republicans in 2016 and held on narrowly in 2018 before being defeated in 2020, so he knows his way around competitive terrain. Hayes, a former National Teacher of the Year and the first Black woman to represent Connecticut in Congress, won her first two races comfortably but faces a different environment this time. Incumbent Democratic governor Ned Lamont seems to be faring well atop the ballot, and Hayes is a hard-working candidate in a district with a decent activist base. A pair of recent polls shows a tie and a one-point Logan lead. Tilt Dem…toss-up, but gut says Hayes has just enough to pull it out.

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Maine – 2 seats

Current: 2 Dems

Projected: 2 Dems

Maine’s 2nd district was a somewhat surprising Dem loss in 2014 and key Dem pickup in 2018 when state rep and Marine veteran Jared Golden defeated Bruce Poliquin. Golden was re-elected by six points in 2020 against a fairly odd candidate and now faces a rematch with Poliquin. This is tough terrain – Trump carried it by a little over 6 points, down from 7.7 under the old map. But Golden is one of the strongest Democratic incumbents, well-suited for this massive, rural, working-class district, and Poliquin is not well-liked. Public polling has consistently shown Golden ahead and the implication from analysts has been that private polling does, too. I’m sticking with Lean Dem here as Golden’s political chops keep him running ahead of his party.

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Massachusetts – 9 seats

Current: 9 Dems

Projected: 9 Dems

The Bay State is the rare one where Democratic votes are distributed across the state in a manner that rewards them, rather than concentrating them into a few towns and cities. As a result, it’s nearly impossible to draw a Congressional seat with a Trump majority. The new map doesn’t include anything riskier for Dems than MA-9’s 18-point Biden win. Republicans lost their last two seats here in 1996 and haven’t gotten one back since; they won’t this year, either.

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New Hampshire – 2 seats

Current: 2 Dems

Projected: 2 Dems

New Hampshire’s new map makes minor changes to its two districts. NH-1 shifts about half a point to the right and NH-2 shifts about a tenth of a point to the left.

NH-1: 2018 freshman Chris Pappas won re-election by five points in 2020; he faces ardent Trumper and former White House staffer Karoline Leavitt, who at 25 would be the youngest Congressperson if she wins. Considering how New Hampshire rejected Trump by a much larger margin after four years in office than in 2016, it seems unlikely that a true believer is the way to go here. After all, New Hampshire seems to like its more Trump-skeptical governor Chris Sununu quite a bit. Most polling has shown Pappas ahead, until a Saint Anselm poll that was an outlier in other respects showed Leavitt up by six. It just wouldn’t make sense for New Hampshire to go so far down the Trumpy path two years after soundly defeating him…and yet, the Granite State does things like that all the time. I’m trusting the first part of that sentence more than the second. Lean Dem.

NH-2: Ann McLane Kuster has held on in good times and bad since flipping this seat in 2012, including a ten-point win last time out. This is a seat Biden won by nine points and her opponent – the former Hillsborough County treasurer, Bob Burns – is not well-funded or running the strongest campaign. Stranger things have happened in NH but Kuster should be fine. Likely Dem.

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The Census was expected to cost Rhode Island (and Dems) a seat – instead, it might be an election that costs Dems a seat in RI for the first time since retaking RI-1 in 1994.

RI-2: A point redder than its predecessor, RI-2 is still very blue at Biden +12.7. But this seat – featuring western Rhode Island, Westerly, South Kingstown (and the University of Rhode Island), East Greenwich, Warwick, and about 40% of Providence, including Federal Hill, Olneyville and Elmhurt – is the scene of a heated race. Longtime incumbent Dem Jim Langevin is retiring, and state treasurer Seth Magaziner is the Dem nominee following a bruising primary. Former Cranston mayor Allan Fung is the GOP standard bearer following two losing races for governor. Fung has led in every independent poll; Magaziner has been down three and even in the two publicly-disclosed polls that he has sponsored. Dems generally outperform their polling in blue states, but Fung has some chops and RI Dems are struggling with internal ideological divisions. This race will likely mark the beginning of a resurgence for RI Republicans. Tilt Rep – improved from October 21’s update but still going red.

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Vermont – 1 seat

Current: 1 Dem

Projected: 1 Dem

Longtime Dem congressman Peter Welch is leaving this seat open to run for U.S. Senate; Becca Balint is assured of replacing him and become Vermont’s first female and first LGBT Congressmember.