Within the Margin

This set of states builds to a crescendo – nothing competitive in Delaware, then one notable race in Maryland, a trio in Jersey, and finally a quintet of notable contests in Pennsylvania.

We’ll start with a zoomed-out look at the final forecast map for the region:

Now, onto the individual states.

Delaware – 1 seat

Current: 1 Dem

Projected: 1 Dem

Delaware’s lone Congressional seat flipped to Dems in 2010 of all years when moderate Mike Castle left it open to run for the Senate. Lisa Blunt Rochester should win re-election with ease.

---

Maryland – 8 seats

Current: 7 Dems, 1 Rep

Projected: 7 Dems, 1 Rep

Maryland’s 2012 gerrymander was one of the ugliest in the country, and yet…not as dramatic as it could have been. Dems targeted MD-6 in western Maryland but left MD-1 on the Eastern Shore and northern border as a Republican seat. This time around they tried to get more aggressive but courts stopped them, resulting in a map that keeps MD-1 safely Republican and potentially puts MD-6 back in play.

MD-6: The western Maryland seat loses Potomac and North Potomac, replacing them with some rural and conservative areas surrounding Frederick. So the district no longer has a tentacle reaching to Frederick; it includes both the Dem city and the adjacent Republican areas. Instead of a district Biden won by 23.5, the new one is Biden +10. Incumbent Dem David Trone should still be fine against state rep Neil Parrott; he’s dominating the airwaves but more importantly still has some DC suburbs like Gaithersburg and Germantown where he can expect both turnout and straight-ticket Dem voting. I had this as Lean Dem on the 21st of October, but have shifted it to Likely Dem.

---

New Jersey – 12 seats

Current: 10 Dems, 2 Reps

Projected: 9 Dems, 3 Reps

New Jersey’s independent commission mostly strengthened the state’s incumbents, so we’re not expecting major changes here.

NJ-3: Andy Kim won re-election by almost eight points against a weak challenger in 2020; now he gets a far bluer seat that voted for Biden by 14.5%. No public polling here since July, but his opponent – who combines a background in punk rock with owning a yacht company, because this timeline is utterly cursed. I mean, how do you fail the punk rock ethos so badly that you become a yacht guy? – has a rich mother pouring millions into TV ads. The Newark Star-Ledge published a scathing editorial about this joker’s efforts to buy a seat in Congress despite knowing nothing about the issues and demonstrating no interest in finding out. And yet, it’s a tricky year for Dems where blue state voters seem to be turning on them. Can’t rule out a victory for the inept challenger here. Likely Dem.

NJ-5: Josh Gottheimer has carved out a bipartisan persona in a formerly Republican district; the new one is substantially bluer (12.5% Biden win). Some of the ratings entities have this as Likely Dem; I’m keeping it Safe Dem. Gottheimer is frustrating for a lot of Dems but the things that make him frustrating are reasonably well-tuned to the 2022 electorate’s apparent concerns.

NJ-7: Tom Malinowski flipped NJ-7 for Dems in 2018 and held on by a little over a point against longtime state senator and frequent promotion-seeker Tom Kean Jr. The GOP has hammered Malinowski constantly on TV for his failure to disclose various stock trades involving health and tech stocks during the pandemic. Malinowski probably deserves to lose for that, and the fact that his district is redrawn district is quite a bit redder (only a 4.5 margin for Biden) will help with that, even if Kean is an uninspiring career politician who has spent decades trading off his father’s popularity as governor. Likely Rep.

---

Pennsylvania – 17 districts, after losing one from the 2020 Census.

Current: 9 Dems, 9 Reps

Projected: 9 Reps, 8 Dems

Pennsylvania’s new court-drawn map eliminates a Republican seat and usually does not dramatically transform the partisanship of the rest of the districts. PA-7 is an outlier in this respect, as we’ll see below.

PA-1: The Bucks County district loves its Fitzpatricks, with the exception of 2006. Mike Fitzpatrick won a few elections here and his brother Brian has one a few more. Polling shows he’s winning another – the question is by a lot or by a little, even in his Biden-voting district. Likely Rep.

PA-7: The Lehigh Valley district no longer extends into East Stroudsburg and Delaware Water Gap in Monroe County – instead it takes in Carbon County. That’s a tough trade for Dems – southern Monroe is blue-trending and Carbon has fallen quite a bit for Dems since giving Obama a narrow win in 2008. These days it gives Trump 65%. So where the old PA-7 gave Biden a five-point win, the new one only vote for him by half a point. Incumbent Dem Susan Wild flipped the seat in 2018 and was re-elected by four points over Lisa Scheller in 2020. Scheller’s back for a rematch on friendlier terrain. At a time where Republicans like to hit Democrats for going too easy on China, it seems like the woman whose manufacturing company outsourced jobs there would not be a great recruit. But they’re the do-as-I-say-not-as-I-do party, after all. The only poll we’ve seen since August showed Wild up a point but we’re told the national environment is beyond perilous for Dems, and this evenly-matched seat therefore would seem to be out of reach, right? I’m being glib here because the narratives this year have at times seemed overwrought. Tilt Rep.

PA-8: This northeastern PA seat is pretty similar to its predecessor, taking in Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, Hazleton, Pike and Wayne counties, and most of Monroe County and the Poconos. It goes from a Trump +4.5 seat to a Trump +2.9, and that might be enough help for Matt Cartwright to hold on. Cartwright’s a skilled incumbent, generally voting with his party but skilled at explaining why and bringing his constituents with him. He’s coming off a three and a half point win in 2020 and might just hold on in a tougher year against the same guy, Republican consultant Jim Bognet. GOP insiders are mocking Dems for focusing too much on abortion rights in districts like this, but for what it’s worth the Siena/NYT polling thinks Cartwright’s getting it right. They showed him up six in a late October poll. I think candidate strength still matters sometimes and this is one race where it makes a difference. Lean Dem – we’ll see if the unnamed mutterers are right, or the guy who puts his name on his picks.

PA-12: A quick note on this one: Republicans have rarely if ever more explicitly campaigned on voter stupidity than here in the 2022 race for Pittsburgh’s 12th district (renumbered from the old 18th. The retiring Democratic incumbent is named Mike Doyle. The Republican candidate is named…Mike Doyle. He’s campaigning with the slogan “the right Mike Doyle.” Summer Lee is a more liberal candidate than the incumbent ever was, but she’s not oblivious to the threat as this district is somewhat more conservative than its predecessor. Still, it’s one Biden won by 20 points based in a city Democrats have dominated for nearly a century. GOP ad buys manufacturing voter confusion about who the candidates are shouldn’t work, if only to demonstrate that voters aren’t idiots and can tell the difference between parties. Safe Dem. Teach them a lesson, Yinzers.

PA-17: Conor Lamb flipped a southwest PA seat blue in a 2018 special and went on to be re-elected twice before running for U.S. Senate this year (he lost the primary to John Fetterman). In Lamb’s absence, Navy vet and voting rights attorney Chris DeLuzio is running against Ross Township councilman Jeremy Shaffer. DeLuzio is running a very similar playbook to Lamb in slightly bluer terrain (it’s now a Biden +6 district instead of +2.8). It’s a similar district, though – still contains all of Beaver County, plus Allegheny County suburbs west and north of Pittsburgh. DeLuzio needs to keep the margins manageable in Beaver, where the bleeding seemed to stop for Dems in 2020, and win the race decisively in Allegheny where he has the advantage of higher-propensity Democratic voters than plenty of the districts Dem must defend this year. I think he gets the turnout he needs in a post-Dobbs environment. Tilt Dem.