Within the Margin

A look at the final forecast map before breaking down the competitive races in a state that seems to be hurtling away from Democrats in recent years, and never more than this cycle (click to enlarge map):

Let’s drill down into what’s happening here.

Florida – 28 seats, after gaining one from the 2020 Census

Current: 16 Reps, 11 Dems

Projected: 20 Reps, 8 Dems

To go from 16-11 to 20-8 at a time when Democrats only have a five-seat majority in the House is devastating; Republicans get close to a majority on their Florida gerrymander alone – or in fairness, the gerrymander and apparent ongoing decline with many groups of Latino voters. Ron DeSantis was obsessed with the redistricting process in Florida, ultimately prevailing over the legislature to carve up various Democratic seats in defiance of Florida’s ignored Fair Districts amendment. 

FL-2: Al Lawson’s old fifth district has been carved up, leaving him to run in FL-2 against Republican incumbent Neal Dunn. Lawson retains Tallahassee and Gadsden County, a pair of solidly Democratic counties. But instead of going east to take in a section of Jacksonville with a large Black population, this district goes west past Panama City, absorbing various deep-red panhandle counties. It’s a district Trump won by more than 7 points, and that’s not the type of place where Dems are going to survive Congressional races this year. Safe Rep.

FL-7: Another obliteration of a Dem district – this time, the one held by Stephanie Murphy. The old district includes Seminole County and parts of Orlando. The new retains Dem-tilting Seminole County but loses Orlando instead heading north and east to take in parts of the much more conservative County, including Deltona and New Smyrna Beach. Instead of a district Biden won by ten points, the new 7th was carried by Trump by more than five points. Murphy retired, putting a promising young political career on hold, and Democrats have all but conceded the new seat. Safe Rep.

FL-13: Charlie Crist opened this seat up by running for governor, where he will likely be destroyed by Ron DeSantis. Redistricting, meanwhile, has made this seat a Likely Rep pickup. It retains part of its character with suburban and politically competitive Clearwater and Largo, but loses heavily Democratic St. Petersburg. The replacement? Marginal Dunedin and heavily Republican Palm Harbor and Tarpon Springs. The result? A seat Biden won by four points is replaced by one Trump won by almost six. Anna Paulina Luna is a QAnon-endorsed, election-denying Marjorie Taylor Greene acolyte taking on Democratic nominee Eric Lynn, a Defense Department alum running a skilled and moderate campaign. Generally, any district with these Republican fundamentals is going to be out of reach for Dems this year, but Luna’s extremism and Lynn’s moderation give him a long shot, but a shot nonetheless. Likely Rep.

FL-15: This is effectively a new seat, as current FL-15 incumbent Scott Franklin is running in the new 18th. Encompassing Brandon, Plant City, Temple Terrace and Zephyrhills, it’s a district Trump carried by three points. Former FL Secretary of State Laurel Lee (R) has the edge against Alan Cohn, a former news anchor who received 45% of the vote in the old 15th in 2020. It’s hard to see Cohn pulling off a surprise in this environment, but he’s strong enough – and the district fundamentals close enough – to keep it Likely Rep instead of Safe.

FL-27: Little Havana, Downtown Miami, Coral Gables, Kendall and down to Cutler Bay. Maria Elvira Salazar avenged a 2018 loss to Donna Shalala to flip this seat back to the Republicans in 2020. A longtime Spanish-language news fixture, Salazar seems well-positioned to hold this seat as long as she wants, especially with Miami’s Cuban-American population trending back to Republicans in recent years. But Democrats have a strong challenger in state senator Annette Taddeo. Polling indicated she was in striking distance, but the tepid Democratic early voting performance in Miami-Dade County makes it unlikely she can pull off the upset. Likely Rep.