Within the Margin

Kentucky, Missouri and West Virginia: a trio of ancestrally Democratic states without competitive Congressional races this cycle, though each got there a little bit differently. Here’s the zoomed-out look…

…and now let’s talk about each of the three states.

Kentucky – 6 seats

Current: 5 Reps, 1 Dem

Projected: 5 Reps, 1 Dem

Kentucky’s lone Democratic seat (Louisville’s KY-3) survived redistricting essentially untouched, but Reps did shore up Lexington’s KY-6, where Amy McGrath ran a competitive challenge for Dems in 2018, by about a point and a half. The old version wasn’t going to be competitive this year, and neither is the new one.

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Missouri – 8 seats

Current: 6 Reps, 2 Dems

Projected: 6 Reps, 2 Dems

Dems thought they had a flip in the making in the suburban/exurban St. Louis 2nd District two years ago, but fell short. Now incumbent Ann Wagner gets a seat eight points safer and is off the map for now. The only solace for Dems is that Republicans ultimately opted against carving up the Kansas City-based 5th in an attempt to score another seat. Choosing caution over the braying screams for blood from certain Missouri legislators, they left the 5th intact and in fact made it more compact and Democratic. No changes in the political makeup of the Missouri delegation can be expected for years to come.

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West Virginia – 2 sets, after losing one from the 2020 Census.

Current: 3 Reps

Projected: 2 Reps

Dems lost their last Congressional seat in West Virginia in 2014. A valiant effort to reclaim WV-3 fell short in 2018; now, with the loss of a seat, the Republican incumbents in WV-1 and WV-2 faced off in a GOP primary so it was their turn to lose a seat. Alex Mooney prevailed; along with Carol Miller, both face a save November election in a state that in living memory was one of the most Democratic at every level of government.