Within the Margin

The map below is my forecast from last Friday; I’ll be updating this Friday night or Saturday with at least one seat moving toward the Republicans.

(click here for interactive map. Remember, that very gray shade of blue is the Tilt Dem seats. No toss-ups here. The idea here is to tell you where my instincts say things are going.)

That’s a 50-50 map, but two seats change hands from the 50-50 status quo we’ve lived under since the start of 2021. For the moment, I have Pennsylvania flipping to Dems…emphasis on “for the moment.” And in the other direction, I haven’t liked an assortment of things coming out of Nevada this cycle, and it currently sits at Tilt Republican. That could change in a future update; after all, the incumbent Democrat (Cathy Cortez Masto) continues to lead in most polling.