Within the Margin

The map below is my forecast from last Friday; I’ll be updating this Friday night or Saturday. You might not see as much coverage of these races as you should – in a post-Dobbs and post-contested elections world, these and state legislative races are just as important or perhaps even more so than the federal scene.

(click here for interactive map. Remember, that very gray shade of blue is the Tilt Dem seats. No toss-ups here. The idea here is to tell you where my instincts say things are going.)

That 28-22 lead in favor of the Republicans matches the breakdown coming into this year’s elections. But I have two flips in each directions. Maryland and Massachusetts represents easy takeovers for Democrats; these are very blue states each coming off of eight years under a relatively moderate Republican governor first elected in the red wave of 2014. This time, neither is running: Maryland’s Larry Hogan is term-limited and Massachusetts’ Charlie Baker opted not to seek a third term. In their place, Republicans nominated a pair of Trumpers who have been rich in controversy and far behind in polls. I have both races rated as Safe Dem.

On the flipside, Republicans are currently forecast here at Within the Margin to gain the governorships in Nevada and Oregon. In the Senate post earlier tonight I referenced my pessimism throughout the cycle with respect to Nevada; that extends to the governor’s race. In Oregon, the outgoing Democratic governor is among the most unpopular in the country. Add to that the presence of an independent candidate who, as a moderate former Democratic state senator, is pulling more votes from that party’s nominee, and you have the conditions for a Republican win. It would be their first win in an Oregon gubernatorial election since 1982.

More to come this weekend.