Within the Margin

…and after all that, the hands are right where anyone’s would be.

Let’s play fast and loose with analogies for a moment, and assert that this Democratic presidential primary has been the Kevin Youkilis of campaigns. You see, when I first started getting into baseball prospect evaluations in a serious way, and thinking more intricately about how scouts examine players, I remember a significant “huh” moment when it came to hitters with unique batting stances: Kevin Goldstein and Jason Parks from Baseball Prospectus were talking on their podcast about how for all the machinations that hitters undergo with their arms, hands, legs, whatever while waiting for the pitch, they almost all end up in the same place at some point. The most important part of the swing is the swing, after all, not the stance. And swings are ultimately not so distinct from one another. So Youks could look awfully unique at first, and then when push came to shove he ultimately was just a hitter (and a pretty damn good one).

So it is, I think, with the race for the Democratic nomination in 2020, specifically with respect to the size of the field. Much was made about the crowding when it peaked at twenty-five candidates – even larger than the 2016 GOP field which was itself by far the largest in modern times. Think pieces were written. Countless social media posts were published – some fretting, some mocking. And yet, as we stand two months from the Iowa caucuses, more than a third of those folks have dropped out (with a couple more entering after the culling began). We’re currently at 15 – still high, yes, but we’d always have expected a big field since after all, Trump is both divisive and less popular than most first-term presidents. There’s blood in the water and that attracts more candidates. Locals might recall that we had nine different declared candidates for NY-19 in 2017-18, because everyone knew Faso was beatable. That was quite high for a Congressional primary. Plus, in the age of social media, I think it’s easier for prospective candidates to imagine themselves catching fire. Everyone’s just one viral tweet or video clip away from becoming a national contender, right?

Today is the third day in a row that someone has ended their campaign. I suspect that by the time Iowans gather at their caucus sites, the field will be in the low double-digits or high single-digits and after that, it’ll shrink very quickly. As it always does. More folks might stick around for each of the first four states than some years, if the current leading quartet (Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren) continue to cluster rather than someone opening up a durable lead. But by the time California votes, this will be a much smaller field than today. Everyone’s hands end up in roughly the same place when it’s time to make contact with the ball.