Within the Margin

I spent a good chunk of 2018 running the field operation for a state senate campaign in New York’s Hudson Valley. Democrats needed to flip one seat to finally retake the senate after spending 77 of the last 80 years as the chamber’s minority conference while stalled legislation piled up at the feet of a Republican majority unwilling to move the state forward on voting reforms, on ethics and campaign finance reforms, on reproductive rights and contraceptive access, on justice for victims of child sexual assault. It has been my calling and my mission for many years to flip this body, and toward that end I put everything I had into winning the 41st Senate District this year.

Statewide, we succeeded! We flipped eight seats. But in the 41st, the result was not so triumphant. We lost by less than 700 votes, or about 0.58% of the total votes cast. It was heartbreaking, but make no mistake: it was vastly better to come close than to be blown out. 683 votes is a better margin than 684. And I’d rather it be 682. Or 681…you get the idea.

And make no mistake on this point, either: it was never supposed to be this close. The incumbent, Sue Serino, is vapid but popular. She’s reasonably visible in much of the district, and she hides behind her conference’s unanimous procedural votes to block popular legislation rather than actually ever having to vote against the bills themselves (with the occasional exception). As a member of the majority, she has been able to deliver dollars to her district. She maintains a friendly demeanor and until this campaign, generally received a pass for a decidely unfriendly voting record. On top of Serino’s strengths, the 41st Senate District (featuring most of Dutchess County and three towns in Putnam County) had a unique relationship to the governor’s race atop the ballot. Andrew Cuomo is not popular here, and his Republican opponent was the Golden Boy – Dutchess County executive Marcus Molinaro. While the latter’s gubernatorial campaign was underfunded and often flailed as he tried to thread the needle between appeasing his Trump-loving base and moderating himself for a blue state in a blue year, he was always going to do reasonably well in Dutchess. Previous elections offered a mixed bag in terms of Molinaro’s coattails, but the general political public’s expectation was that he would bring out otherwise-demoralized local Republicans and provide a boost to Serino by actively campaigning for GOP representation in Albany. Serino + Molinaro was supposed to be an unbeatable combo in a district with a long GOP history, and that voted for Hillary Clinton by a tiny margin, with a sizable third party vote.

But Karen Smythe ran a great campaign, and ran far ahead of Cuomo in Dutchess (and Putnam). Serino’s real estate allies spent big in an effort to bail her out in the campaign’s final weeks, but their paid out-of-district army of lit-droppers leaving generic door hangers at voters’ homes was not quite as inspiring as the legions of local Smythe volunteers talking to their neighbors about Karen’s background and ideas, and Serino’s problematic issue stances. We built a phenomenal field operation to back our engaging and indefatigable candidate.

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There wasn’t any time to waste thinking about bizarre scenarios that would upend the race and weaken Sue enough to defeat her. There wasn’t going to be a corruption scandal (beyond all the forms of corruption that are perfectly legal in state politics). There wasn’t going to be a dramatic gaffe. There wasn’t going be a sexual harassment claim, or a shouting match with a constituent, or a comment about public hangings. Nothing was going to fall from the sky and gift us the glorious ending that we wanted. We had to win the race ourselves, one voter at a time, through the interactions Karen and her volunteers were having with volunteers, and through our mailers and advertisements. We came incredibly close.

We may find that the current president of the United States – who indeed offers a teeming pile of corruption, gaffes, sexual harassment claims, and horrific statements about racial violence – has already had all of his weaknesses priced in by voters, and it seems clear that his fervent base simply won’t leave him. Yes, he prevailed in 2016 against a similarly unpopular opponent and thanks in no small part to the third party votes cast by individuals who thought it safe to do so. But he did, nonetheless, prevail. One assumes Democrats will nominate a better candidate in 2020, but they might not. One assumes third party votes will drop, as they did in the 2018 midterms, but they might not – especially if a high-profile independent bid emerges (Kasich?) One assumes that the Mueller investigation, when concluded, will paint the president in an unflattering light, but one cannot assume it will lead to legal action or anything that damages the president beyond his already historically weak standing…standing that does not rule out his election.

He already has all the problems that we could never truly hope a Serino to have, and that hasn’t been enough to finish him off. To hope for more – a deus ex machina scenario where the shortcomings of the electorate, or the opposition party, or both are rendered moot, or a sudden reawakening of American idealism – cannot be the strategy. We have to win in 2020 the same way we tried to, and very nearly did, win 2018 in Dutchess and Putnam counties: one voter at a time, with a great candidate and fantastic volunteers having meaningful discussions with that segment of the electorate that can be persuaded and mobilized if only we put in the work – if only we make the ending ourselves.