Within the Margin

Last week, I wrote about the importance of Democrats widening the playing field. The worst that happens is you lose. “Oh, but it takes money!” say the naysayers. “Oh, but people will just be disappointed after losing an unwinnable race!” Now, this might be news to some folks, but people were pretty disappointed after losing an eminently winnable race to Donald Trump last year. Please, Democratic strategists: do not concern yourself with my disappointment – other than the disappointment that would come from failing to try new things in new places. As for the money, I hear you: but we can always strive to make up in 2018 for whatever shortfalls come from spending money on a few risky races in 2017. And besides: we’re seeing with Ossoff and Quist (not to mention the Delaware state senate special back in February) that the national donors from the grassroots to the big spender will kick in cash in the hopes of winning an early victory against Trump, especially in surprising territory. In other words, the very act of competing in a new place brings in money we might not otherwise have raised, rather than draining from future donations.

It does take something special to win in hostile territory, though. There has to be a special factor, even beyond Trump’s unique, early unpopularity, since he of course did win in these “expand the map” places we’re discussing. Fortunately, when it comes to the Alabama senate election taking place off-cycle this November, we have two such factors: an incumbent touched by scandal (the full extent of which remains unknown) and the presence of a Republican primary challenger who is a hero to his base, but reviled by many even in this conservative state.

The scandal in question involves Luther Strange’s appointment to replace Jeff Sessions in the U.S. Senate when the latter was confirmed as U.S. Attorney General. The whole sordid tale is worth a look on your own if you haven’t already, but for our purposes here: Strange was appointed to the Senate by recently-resigned Alabama governor Robert Bentley…who was being investigated by Strange for a scandal involving the use of state resources to cover up his affair with staffer and consultant Rebekah Mason. Except Strange publicly denied such an investigation, knowing how bad it would look to take a Senate appointment from a guy he was investigating for corruption. But once Strange’s replacement as Alabama AG took office, he revealed that indeed, such an investigation was underway. So not only did Strange take an appointment from a guy he was supposed to be investigating, but he lied about the investigation. Ultimately, Bentley resigned rather than face impeachment, and the new governor, Kay Ivey, opted to move the special election for the duration of Sessions’ unexpired term up a year. Alabama law gives governors discretion in scheduling such elections; Bentley chose 2018. But Ivey recognized that the circumstances surrounding Strange’s appointment cast considerable doubt over its legitimacy, and moved the special up to 2017 so as to restore some confidence in the office sooner rather than later. This way, voters can ratify the appointment (or not) and Strange gets less time to insulate himself through the powers of incumbency.

Keep in mind, too, that public corruption is something of a theme in Alabama of late. Former Speaker of the House Mike Hubbard was convicted last year on 12 felony counts of violating state ethics laws. When events fit into an existing narrative, that narrative is strengthened. Right now, the narrative is that corruption at the state capitol includes a whole lot of people, and one of them faces an election for U.S. Senate in a few months.

Which brings us to his most prominent announced primary challenger: Roy Moore, Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court. He announced his resignation from that position today in order to run. He enters the race as a confirmed Trumplodyte, as well as nationally-known figure for his strident actions over the years on church/state issues – placing a Ten Commandments monument in the state judicial building, telling lower-court judges they had to uphold the state’s prohibition on same-sex marriage despite a Supreme Court ruling to the contrary.

In Alabama, those positions have given him a base and a career. They also nearly cost him the 2012 election as chief justice, as Democrats recruited a strong candidate who outraised Moore by a considerable amount and got over 48% of the vote despite the top of the Democratic ticket (Barack Obama) losing badly in Alabama. Moore has won and lost Republican primaries, so it’s an open question whether he can win this nomination. By positioning himself as the morals candidate in the face of corruption, he may well overtake the tainted Luther Strange. But the flaws of both candidates leave the door wide open to other candidates – some who have already entered and some who are still considering.

But if the nominee is the damaged Strange or the controversial Moore, it’s possible Democrats could be competitive here…with a strong candidate. This is not a state where a generic Dem can ever beat even a flawed Republican. Does that special candidate exist? My friend and occasional WTM collaborator Matt Clausen immediately and wisely referenced the recently-departed U.S. attorneys to have served the state’s three districts. Two of them in particular jump out: the Norther District’s Joyce Vance, with a history of successfully prosecuting public corruption cases in Alabama (and whose husband nearly defeated Moore in 2012), and the Southern District’s Kenyen Brown, who successfully prosecuted a terrorism case during his time a USA. Both present an interesting profile, with Vance in particular offering a helpful contrast should Strange still be the nominee.

If Democrats – who admittedly haven’t won anything in Alabama in a long time, and who have been undermined by infighting in recent years – can indeed find a viable candidate, it would be political malpractice not to recruit him or her with a real eye toward shocking the political world and winning this race. It would give Democrats their first U.S. Senator from the Yellowhammer State since Howell Heflin retired in 1996…which opened to the door to Jeff Sessions’ successful candidacy.