Within the Margin

Sometimes it’s just about geography. My favorite district in my second state is a good example. 

I understand that Republicans are looking for bright spots from this month’s elections, and that’s fair. I’d be doing the same. But to hear Brock McCleary tell it, Keith Rothfus’ victory in southwest Pennsylvania’s 12th district is a triumph of smart campaigning and of prevailing against great odds. McCleary is the NRCC’s  (National Republican Congressonal Committee) Deputy Political Director, and he has a history with this district. He’s forthcoming about how personal this race was for him. I think that attachment is preventing him from seeing this simply as a triumph of partisan mapmaking.

Redistricting took the district that Critz won in 2010 (twice) and  made the Obama ’08 percentage about four points lower than it had been. Then, in 2012, Obama cratered in much of western Pennsylvania, and most profoundly in the areas contained in the 12th district. Critz’ Cambria County base voted narrowly for Obama in 2008. This time, he received only 40% of the vote – a nine-point drop. The same goes for Somerset County. Other counties in the Fightin’ 12th saw anywhere from a 1-4 point Obama percentage drop over 2008 . This collapse didn’t happen in most parts of the county, where Obama’s drop relative to 2008 was around two points. But it happened throughout Appalachia, and southwest Pennsylvania was no different. Winning in a 50-50 district would have been tough enough for Critz. Winning in the redrawn 54-45 McCain-Obama district was going to be tougher, and this turned out to be more like a 57% Romney district. We’re moving back toward straight-ticket voting in this country, and we’ll find that few Democrats held on in districts where Romney’s percentage was so high.

Where did we at WTM see this race going? We had it at Tilt Dem, with Critz’ political chops being just enough to survive the continued reddening of the district. So yeah, we got it wrong – barely – and maybe that validates McCleary’s excitement a bit. But the credit should go to the Republican legislators in Harrisburg who concocted a map where Rothfus could squeak out a three-point win while Romney was romping in the district. They made it more Republican. They removed IUP, where Critz is an alum (as am I). They shifted it north, removing the sections of Greene and Fayette that Critz had previously carried.

Look, partisan gerrymandering kept Republican losses lower than the might have been this year. It also helped Democrats in two of the only places where they got to draw the map – Illinois and Maryland. It’s ok to acknowledge that fact rather than paint Keith Rothfus and his team as a group of political geniuses.