Within the Margin

Overview
Illinois faces a unique set of circumstances in its Congressional elections this year. Like many states, it saw a wave of House seats fall into Republican hands during the 2010 wave elections. But unlike many of larger states where this occurred, Democrats maintained control of the governorship and the state legislature. This allowed the Dems to undo an incumbent-protection plan from 2002 and draw a friendlier map designed to regain a number of seats lost in 2010.

The Land of Lincoln lost one seat during reapportionment; the 16th district’s veteran Republican incumbent Don Manzullo was drawn into a primary with freshman Adam Kinzinger from the 11th. The younger, more energetic newcomer won the primary and now has what is expected to be a same district for the foreseeable future. So the current 11-8 Republican advantage in the Illinois delegation is effectively 10-8 going into this year’s elections.

If Democrats are to make a dent in the Republican House majority, they need 3-5 pickups in Illiniois, and they need to hold their sole endangered seat (the 12th district).

The Safe Seats:
Seven of Illinois’ seats are based in the City of Chicago; all are safely Democratic. Republicans last won a Congressional district in the city in 1994, when a GOP wave and a scandal-plagued incumbent gave them the Northside’s 5th district for a single term. The 1st, 2nd and 7th districts are majority-African American districts in accordance with the Voting Rights Acts; the 1st and 2nd cover the South Side while the 7th covers the Downtown/Loop and the Near West Side. Eahc includes more suburban territory than their previous incarnations. The 4th is the Hispanic-majority VRA district – earmuff-shaped to join Hispanic neighborhoods on the North and South sides. The 3rd is a majority-white district in Southwest Chicago (plus some suburbs); Republicans lack a bench here but it’s not nearly as Democratic in federal races as the rest of the city. Finally, the 9th district covers the Lakefront and places like Evanston, Skokie and Winnetka and includes one of the larger population of affluent white liberals anywhere in the country.

Illinois’ 6th district covers a sprawling portion of the city’s western suburbs, including Downers Grove, Wheaton, Lake Zurich, Palatine and the northeastern part of Naperville. It has been a Republican district for more than a century. Dems almost picked it up in 2006 when Tammy Duckworth ran for an open seat, but Peter Roskam won, expanded his margin in 2008, and is now utterly safe. The same goes for freshman Randy Hultgren further west in the 14th, which stretches from McHenry and Marengo in the north to Batavia and Geneva further south and to Plainfield beyond that. The 15th district is one of only two that John McCain would have carried in 2008 under the new lines; it covers the southeastern portion of the state, including Danville and Effingham. The other McCain district is the significantly-revised 18th, covering parts of Peoria, Springfield, Bloomington-Normal and smaller towns like Quincy and Jacksonville. Aaron Schock will easily win again there before running for governor in two years. The final safe Republican district was mentioned above – Adam Kinzinger’s new 16th, covering eastern Rockford, DeKalb, Mendota and part of the Illinois River Valley.

The Competitive Seats:

Illinois’ 8th Congressional District – Northwest Chicago suburbs including Elgin, Schaumburg, Elk Grove Village
Last flip: 2010
Joe Walsh was one of the least likely winners of 2010, narrowly defeating a moderate Democrat who had appeared to cement her hold on the district after becoming the first Dem to win it in the modern era in 2004. Walsh is the quintessential Tea Partier in terms of ideology, settled a lawsuit by his ex-wife for failing to pay $115,000 in child support, and making outlandish comments about abortions to protect a mother’s health. With all of that, he surely would have lost his old district this time out. But Democrats made sure of it, redrawing it about six points bluer. On top of all that, he drew a powerhouse challenger in Tammy Duckworth. She’s pulling away in polls, and it’s hard to see how Walsh holds on here.
Rating: Likely Democratic

Illinois’ 10th Congressional District – Northern Chicago suburbs including Waukegan, Buffalo Grove, Highland Park, part of Northbrook
Last flip: 1980
This district elects relatively moderate Republicans to Congress with few exceptions. But as a 61% Obama district, Dems targeted it as one of their few pickup opportunities in 2010 when incumbent Mark Kirk ran for the U.S. Senate. But even with a plausible candidate in friendly territory, Dems couldn’t get it done. Bob Dold was elected, and immediately targeted by redistricters, who increased the Obama percentage to 63%. Moderate Democratic businessman Brad Schneider opened a sizable lead in a recent poll, but we’ve seen Dold come from behind before – granted, not this far. Dold has largely distanced himself from the extremists in the House GOP caucus, and I think that’s enough – just barely enough – to help him survive as the region’s voters applaud him for being reasonable. We set the bar low these days.
Ratings: Tilt Republican

Illinois’ 11th Congressional District – Southwestern Chicago exurbs including Aurora, Bolingbrook, Joliet, southwestern Naperville
Last flip: 2010 (Aurora and Joliet)
Redistricting was not kind to 7-term Republican incumbent Judy Biggert. The Obama percentage rose from 54% to 61% and less than half of the district’s voters come from her current 13th district. She is being challenged by Bill Foster, who served the old 14th district for a term and a half before losing in 2010. A physicist and businessman with considerable personal wealth and moderate sensibilities, Foster is a tough opponent, even for the relatively-moderate Biggert. Like the 10th, this one’s incredibly tight with surprisingly little polling. Republicans sounded the alarm last week though, indicating that Biggert urgently needs funds to survive on Tuesday. She doesn’t seem nimble on the campaign trail, and the sense here is that Foster has the momentum.
Rating: Tilt Democratic

Illinois’ 12th Congressional District – Southwestern Illinois, including East St. Louis, Alton, Mt. Vernon, Carbondale, Cairo
Last flip: 1944
Democrats have held the East St. Louis district since before the end of World War II, but that streak may come to an end this year. Incumbent Jerry Costello is retiring, opening a seat that feels like a danger area for Democrats – white, working-class, mostly rural. It’s a district where Obama won 55% in 2008, but he’ll probably fall a bit short of that this time. Carrying the blue flag here is General Bill Enyart, former head of the Illinois National Guard. Republicans are sending out Jason Plummer, who ran statewide for lieutenant governor two years ago and lost. Enyart seems like the better candidate on paper and leads in a pair of recent polls, but this district seems like it could be headed toward swing territory.
Rating: Tilt Democratic

Illinois’ 13th Congressional District – Central Illinois, including Champaign, Decatur, most of Springfield, parts of Bloomington-Normal
Last flip: 1938
This is effectively the descendant of the current 15th district, but it bears little resemblance to the seat Tim Johnson is vacating. Former Congressional staffer Rodney Davis is hoping to replace him, but he’s fighting on blue turf (55% Obama). Democratic physician David Gill was thought to be a lightweight candidate; national Democrats were disappointed when he won the primary. But Gill has proven to be a competent campaigner, and local Republicans have had  to sort through some angst about the way David was selected (Johnson bailed after winning the primary, so a replacement candidate was chosen by local party leaders). I didn’t expect this one to go Dems’ way, but Gill seems to have the edge.
Rating: Tilt Democratic

Illinois’ 17th Congressional District – Quad Cities, western Rockford, most of Peoria, Galesburg
Last flip: 2010
This race is exceedingly difficult to call. The Quad Cities area sent Democrats to Congress from 1982 to 2010; this was a late-breaking district in that year’s Republican wave and one which I deemed unlikely to flip even in my worst-case scenario for Democrats. But flip it did, a credit to the hard work of local pizzeria owner Bobby Schilling.

So will it flip right back? The district is now three points bluer after redistricting, and Schilling campaigned as a Tea Partier…this district should revert to the mean, no? That’s what I thought coming into the year. But Schilling has adapted somewhat to reality in the House, eschewing some of the Tea Party’s positions and fashioning a record that is occasionally labor-friendly. That should help him out in this blue-collar district with a decent proportion of union households. It should be noted, too, that as much as Schilling only reached the radar screen late in the 2010 campaign, he ended up winning by 10 points – a significant margin for the district and for a lower-tier race.

Schilling faces East Moline alderwoman Cheri Bustos, winner of a difficult Democratic pimary. Polling is tight but has been moving in Bustos’ direction. Both sides have poured money into the race; it’s near the top of Democratic takeover lists and presents something of a “Well, if not here, then where?” dilemma for the party. Presidential coattails will be present but seem unlikely to be enormous; Obama is not polling nearly as well in Illinois as he did four years ago. It is truly too close to call with any confidence, but we’re picking Bustos. The rationale: The Quad Cities media market crosses into Iowa – a presidential battleground state. Obama spent the first half of the year tied or trailing in Iowa; more recently he has opened up a lead in one of his most important states. Part of what has enabled this is the spring and summer advertising push – a push which has necessarily played out in this part of Illinois due to the market overlap. If Iowans are increasingly in the president’s camp, I suspect this district will drop off less for Obama than others in Illinois. That should be enough to get Bustos just barely over the top.
Rating: Tilt Democratic

Summary: +4 pickups for Dems, but all on a knife’s edge: they could get a fifth, or they could come away with only one (Walsh) if the Republican incumbents can finish strong.