Within the Margin

New projection: 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans – no net change

When we first posted our race-by-race Senate ratings in mid-October, we concluded that Republicans were looking at a net gain of one seat, for a 52-48 Democratic majority come January (down from their current 53-47 edge). Since then, several Senate races have shifted unmistakably in favor of Democratic candidates. We’re shifting some of our ratings appropriately. In one case – Indiana – we’re moving from Tilt Republican to Tilt Democratic. This makes it a Democratic pickup and gives them three pickups (along with Massachusetts and presumably Maine, if the independent Angus King caucuses with Dems as expected). We have three Rep pickups right now (Montana, Nebraska and North Dakota) so the arithmetic is simple: no net change in the 2013 Senate. Democrats would consider that a huge win, considering the difficult map they faced coming into this year’s Senate elections. It’s also worth noting that we consider Montana and North Dakota each to be a on knife’s edge – if the Republican is favored, it’s by the smallest of margins. Let’s look at what’s prompting our changes in each state.

Indiana
Republican Treasurer Richard Mourdock has never held more than the narrowest of leads here, and has occasionally trailed Democratic Congressman Joe Donnelly. The ultra-conservative Mourdock has always had limited crossover appeal to independents, and alienated some of the state’s Republicans by defeating longtime senator and widely-respected statesman Dick Lugar in the primary. But since our original Tilt Republican rating, Mourdock may well have sunk himself by declaring that it is “God’s intent” when a pregnancy occurs resulting rape. Mourdock has been somewhat mournful in the week since, and has tried to clarify his statement. But at the end of the day, it’s a bizarre sentiment, and I doubt many Indianans believe that their God views rape and pregnancy quite the same way. Donnelly is hardly a progressive’s dream candidate when it comes to reproductive rights; he quite foolishly once bought into the distinction between “rape” and “forcible rape.” But it’s not hard to appear reasonable when Richard Mourdock is your opponent, and Donnelly’s careful campaign may finally be starting to pull ahead here. The last two Democratic polls each show a seven-point lead, by far his largest of the campaign; independent polling has shown a narrower Donnelly lead while Mourdock’s last internal showed the Republican ahead by a point . There are still a great many undecideds here, as has been the case all year. But it’s our gut feeling that those undecideds are finally seeing Mourdock’s extremism, adding it to his loud partisanship, and edging toward Donnelly. Add to that the anecdotes we’re hearing about GOP women refusing to applaud Mourdock at a recent GOP dinner – after giving gubernatorial candidate Mike Pence a standing ovation – and it seems like it’s all going wrong for Mourdock.
Rating: Tilt Democratic

Massachusetts
We are very cautiously moving this race to Lean Democratic from its previous Tilt rating. Generally held to be the most intriguing Senate matchup of the cycle, we never anticipated either candidate pulling away. But Elizabeth Warren appears to be doing so. She’s now polling over 50% with some regularity, at least one survey has shown that minds are made up enough that Scott Brown’s ceiling is lower than he can afford it to be, and Brown seems to be running out of ideas to attack her. We mentioned in our first writeup that Brown is a closer, and I expect him to be sharp in the final days of this campaign. But in 2010 he had momentum, and this time it appears he does not.
Rating: Lean Democratic

Nebraska
I don’t think either Matt or I really expected this race to tighten up; Democrat Bob Kerrey just didn’t seem to have it in him this time. The decorated veteran and former governor and senator is attempting a comeback after 12 years out of politics and trailed by double-digits in polls all year against Deb Fischer, the state senator who pulled off an upset win in the GOP primary as the Tea Party standard-bearer. But anecdotally, Kerrey is outworking Fischer on the ground, and he has found a line of attack that seems to be working with regards to a land dispute lawsuit by Fischer against her neighbors. And perhaps voters are feeling nostalgic for the 1990s? Either way, there have been five polls of this race since mid-October – one from Kerrey showing a five-point deficit for the Democrat, one from Fischer showing her still ahead by 16 points, and three independent polls showing leads of 2-3 point for Fischer. This is still her race to lose, Nebraska is fundamentally a solidly red state, and there are plenty of attacks for Fischer to roll out to blunt Kerrey’s advance in the final week. But we can’t call a race with two weeks of close polling safe, and in fact, we’re not even sure it’s Likely Republican. We’re skipping all the way to Lean Republican. If Kerrey shows signs of receding again over the weekend, we’ll change the rating accordingly before Election Day next Tuesday.

For dueling takes on the race and particularly Kerrey’s movement, read this and this.
Rating: Lean Republican

So to recap:

Indiana From Tilt Republican to Tilt Democratic
Massachusetts From Tilt Democratic to Lean Democratic
Nebraska From Safe Republican to Lean Republican