Within the Margin

Everyone likes Chris Christie. Oh, except for some Republican donors who have probably never actually had to govern a state. Or anything. And who might not listen to enough Springsteen.

Last week, the Times ran a piece detailing Chris Christie’s rocky relationship with Republican insiders amid the fallout from having a warm relationship with President Obama in Sandy’s aftermath. That piece was worth a read to understand the depths to which out-of-state donors sunk as they begged Christie to focus on helping Romney rather than the devastation that had come to his state from Sandy.  Look, it should be noted that Chris Christie was hardly the Romney campaign’s biggest problem. If the Republicans really wanted to win that election, they could have offered a budget whose numbers added up, rather than Paul Ryan’s sleight-of-hand (the Paul Ryan “MATH” Obamicon was one of the more ironic images from the 2012 campaign). They could have offered something besides condescension for the rising demographic groups with whom they performed so poorly. They could have offered a set of values that would not be so easily caricatured as coming from the 1920s (economic policy) or 1950s (social policy. Oh, and foreign policy, with that bit about Russia.)

But they didn’t, and Romney lost, and Chris Christie has little to do with that. It’s probably not the first time in the annals of history that the GOP donor class is out of touch with normal people. It seemed pretty obvious to most, I think, that the man’s commitment to duty and deep love for his state was fueling a desire to work hand-in-hand with the federal government to get through a crisis. But don’t take my word for it. Quinnipiac has been polling the Garden State, and they found that 84% of New Jerseyans approved of Christie’s praise for Obama – including 69% of Jersey Republicans. When it comes to Christie handling his job, particularly inter-governmental relations, I care what people in his state think – not what donors think, and now what insiders desperately looking for their next consulting gig might think.

Now, as Democratic insiders go, I’ve always been pretty tolerant of this guy. There’s a reason for this. When it comes to Christie, the first thing I think of is not union-busting or physical girth or New Jersey bluster – which are the things media people and pundits and political combatants usually cling to. For me, the first thing that comes to mind when I ponder Christie…is Springsteen. That goes beyond Christie and I simply being fans of a man and his music, because the music represents something hard to define, but which is about an attachment to place and time and personal struggle that I feel in an acute way, and which I think Christie does as well. I can disagree with Christie on some – not nearly all – of his policies, but I might consider him something of a kindred spirit in how he goes through his life. So when I see donors lamenting that Christie’s too tight with Obama, or Iowa Republican operatives saying they “don’t forget things like this, I think, “Oh, another bunch of donors and hacks who could use a little more Bruce in their lives.” If you can’t empathize with Christie and understand the importance of place and people before politics in the days and weeks following Sandy, then it seems to me there’s a catalog of music that’s missing from your life. Come back to me when you’ve found your soul.

Sometimes it’s just about geography. My favorite district in my second state is a good example. 

I understand that Republicans are looking for bright spots from this month’s elections, and that’s fair. I’d be doing the same. But to hear Brock McCleary tell it, Keith Rothfus’ victory in southwest Pennsylvania’s 12th district is a triumph of smart campaigning and of prevailing against great odds. McCleary is the NRCC’s  (National Republican Congressonal Committee) Deputy Political Director, and he has a history with this district. He’s forthcoming about how personal this race was for him. I think that attachment is preventing him from seeing this simply as a triumph of partisan mapmaking.

Redistricting took the district that Critz won in 2010 (twice) and  made the Obama ’08 percentage about four points lower than it had been. Then, in 2012, Obama cratered in much of western Pennsylvania, and most profoundly in the areas contained in the 12th district. Critz’ Cambria County base voted narrowly for Obama in 2008. This time, he received only 40% of the vote – a nine-point drop. The same goes for Somerset County. Other counties in the Fightin’ 12th saw anywhere from a 1-4 point Obama percentage drop over 2008 . This collapse didn’t happen in most parts of the county, where Obama’s drop relative to 2008 was around two points. But it happened throughout Appalachia, and southwest Pennsylvania was no different. Winning in a 50-50 district would have been tough enough for Critz. Winning in the redrawn 54-45 McCain-Obama district was going to be tougher, and this turned out to be more like a 57% Romney district. We’re moving back toward straight-ticket voting in this country, and we’ll find that few Democrats held on in districts where Romney’s percentage was so high.

Where did we at WTM see this race going? We had it at Tilt Dem, with Critz’ political chops being just enough to survive the continued reddening of the district. So yeah, we got it wrong – barely – and maybe that validates McCleary’s excitement a bit. But the credit should go to the Republican legislators in Harrisburg who concocted a map where Rothfus could squeak out a three-point win while Romney was romping in the district. They made it more Republican. They removed IUP, where Critz is an alum (as am I). They shifted it north, removing the sections of Greene and Fayette that Critz had previously carried.

Look, partisan gerrymandering kept Republican losses lower than the might have been this year. It also helped Democrats in two of the only places where they got to draw the map – Illinois and Maryland. It’s ok to acknowledge that fact rather than paint Keith Rothfus and his team as a group of political geniuses.

From time to time we like to take things local here at WTM, and on Election Night I promised to elaborate further on the scope of just what had happened in my home county. I don’t toss around words like “historic” without thought; I have a graduate degree in the field and a deep awareness of the transient nature of electoral success. But as election results came in, it became clear that Democrats in Dutchess County were experiencing something akin to their best-case scenario for the evening. In doing so, the party surpassed all of its previous high-water marks, which are ranked below. But first, let’s examine what happened, starting at the top.

President. Barack Obama carried Dutchess County again. His margin was slightly reduced from 2008, but the erosion was not as much as he experienced nationally (-1.24% versus -2.14%, both numbers being subject to minor revision pending final tallies) and was still enough for a comfortable 6.6% margin of victory in the county As much as Democrats struggled here in 2009 and 2010, causing doubts as to whether Obama could again carry Dutchess, he ended up performing pretty decently here. This is the fourth time that a Democratic presidential candidate won this county – the others being Johnson ’64, Clinton ’96, and Obama ’08.

Senate. As expected, Kirsten Gillibrand obliterated her woeful, extremist opponent statewide and carried Dutchess by a 2:1 margin.

House of Representatives. Dutchess is divided between two Congressional districts. Republican freshman Chris Gibson represents northern and eastern Dutchess and carried the county en route to reelection. Fellow GOP first-termer Nan Hayworth represents southwestern Dutchess and was not so successful: she was defeated decisively by Democratic Sean Maloney in Dutchess and more narrowly district-wide. Maloney becomes the third Democrat to represent Southern Dutchess in Congress, following John Dow in the ’60s and John Hall, who won in 2006 and 2008.

State Assembly. The new Assembly map divides Dutchess into four Assembly districts. The 103rd includes only Rhinebeck and Red Hook and is otherwise an Ulster County district; here, incumbent Democrat Kevin Cahill was unopposed for reelection.

The 104th district includes Poughkeepsie, Beacon and sections of Orange and Ulster. This was won narrowly by Frank Skartados in 2008 over 14-year incumbent Tom Kirwan. The latter would be back to win an even closer rematch in 2010, but he passed away before completing his final term, prompting a March 2012 special election. Skartados won that easily, and crushed his opponent in the general. This seat, safely Republican for so long and marginal recently, has officially become a safely Democratic seat.

The 105 and 106th districts are effectively new entities, drawn out of the old 102nd and 103rd. Democrat Didi Barrett’s special election victory in the old 103rd in March made her the first Democrat ever to hold that seat, now effectively the 106th. In her quest for a full term, Barrett faced new territory and a legitimate challenger in West Point graduate and Milan councilman David Byrne. The Republican had won an Opportunity to Ballot campaign to snag the Independence Line from Barrett in September and the Barrett campaign was taking nothing for granted, even in a district slightly more Democratic than the one in which she triumphed in March. She ended up winning by the almost-comfortable margin of 55%-45% – a remarkable feat in territory so unaccustomed to sending Dems to Albany.

The 105th includes all of Dutchess County’s most Republican towns; it did what southern Dutchess does and elected Republican Kieran Lalor to an open seat by a 56-44 margin. That loss for Dems should not detract from the totality of what they did. In 2010, Dutchess was divided between five districts; only one (featuring exactly one Dutchess town) elected a Democratic Assemblyman. In 2012, three of the county’s four districts elected Dems, and did so by healthy margins.

State Senate. This might have been the biggest win of them all. No Democrat had been elected to the State Senate from Dutchess County since young legislator Franklin Delano Roosevelt won a pair of elections in 1912 and 1914. Roosevelt would fade into obscurity, and Democrats rarely even came close to winning the seat again. Even in the great years of 2006 and 2008, the mighty Steve Saland was just too powerful. But his vote for marriage equality invited a Republican primary challenger who nearly defeated him in September; the same man fought on via the Conservative line in the general election. And ready to twist the knife was Terry Gipson, the Rhinebeck village trustee who spent two full years campaigning for this seat, starting as an underfunded longshot and ultimately ending as the 41st district’s next state senator. In dethroning one of the giants of Dutchess Republicanism, Gipson demonstrated the importance of starting early and sticking with it.

Two Dutchess towns (Beekman and Pawling) remain in the 40th district; they voted heavily for Republican incumbent Greg Ball, who won a second term as his Putnam and Dutchess victories outweighed a narrow Westchester defeat.

State Supreme Court. Dutchess forms part of the 9th Judicial District along with Orange, Putnam, Rockland and Westchester. It’s friendly enough turf for Dems, but Dutchess rarely gets represented in the Democratic nominations since Westchester has the highest population, is the most Democratic, and likes to call the shots. But his year, Maria Rosa of Millbrook was one of the Democrats running for three seats on the court, and emerged victorious to become the first Dutchess Democrat elected to the 9th since 1964.

County Legislature. County elections occur in odd-numbered years, but the appointment of incumbent Republican Gary Cooper to a county administrative post necessitated a special election in the 19th district of northeastern Dutchess. Milan’s Debra Blalock mounted a spirited campaign against appointed replacement David Sherman of North East; she was the underdog but fought to a 17-vote lead on Election Night. That’s close enough that it theoretically could have flipped via absentees, but it has not: Blalock’s lead has increased to 71 votes during the counting of absentee ballots. Blalock thus becomes the first Democratic county legislator in history from her district.

Town Races. Several special elections were held to fill unexpired terms for supervisor, justice and town board in different towns. These were all in places Republicans historically win with ease. But in one of them, young Democrat Tim Tuttle bounced back from a 2011 loss to become the first Democrat on the Fishkill town board in half a century.

So let’s summarize. Dutchess Democrats carried the county for the president and U.S. Senate, picked up long-held GOP seats on the Fishkill Town Board, Dutchess County Legislature, and New York State Senate, retook a Congressional seat, held two Assembly seats that had GOP incumbents this time last year, and elected a fresh, local face to the State Supreme Court. It was more than anyone could have realistically hoped for coming in, and it’s an indication that the party’s relatively new (and smallish) registration advantage is starting to translate into victories up and down the ballot. There will still be challenges: this year was partially enabled by Obama’s presence atop the ticket. Republicans around the country are vastly better than Democrats at turning out their voters in local years, and Dutchess is no different in this respect. But with each win, candidate recruitment gets a little bit easier. And as recruiting improves, more wins occur and the cycle begins anew. The candidates and party leaders who made these wins possible should congratulate themselves not only for what they did this year, but for what this year potentially means going forward in making Dutchess a truly competitive two-party county.

The rest of the top five Democratic years in Dutchess County history? We can debate the order, but here’s how I’d rank ’em:

2. 2008
This was the year Democrats passed Republicans in the number of voters registered in Dutchess County, auguring a strong year for the party. Barack Obama was the first Democrat to carry Dutchess in the presidential race since Clinton in ’96 and he blew past Clinton’s 45.6% to win just under 54% in Dutchess. That aided easy wins for each of the county’s incumbent members of Congress, plus several local pickups. In the 100th Assembly district (Poughkeepsie/Beacon/Newburgh and suburbs in Orange and Ulster), Frank Skartados eked out a win over longtime incumbent Tom Kirwan. Joan Posner won a historic victory to take a seat on the county’s Family Court, the first Democratic female to do so in the county’s history. Robert McKeon won a special election to give Democrats the majority on the Red Hook town board. Joanna Shafer won a special town board race in Stanford.

Legitimate disappointments were few. Jonathan Smith’s Assembly campaign against Joel Miller gained traction but didn’t end up quite as close as I thought it would. Anne Rubin’s guerilla campaign against Marc Molinaro will always hold a special place in many of our hearts, though. And…Lumies Huff, anybody? Go Crimson.

3. 1964

In ’64, Lyndon Johnson became the first Democratic presidential candidate in the 20th century to carry Dutchess County – he would be the last to do so until Bill Clinton did so in 1996 with an assist from Ross Perot. As many locals have no doubt heard, even Franklin Delano Roosevelt never carried his home county even while winning nationwide with ease on four occasions. Johnson’s 63%-37% victory was similar to his national margin of victory; he obliterated Republican nominee Barry Goldwater everywhere but the Deep South. That created a coattail affect across the country, and in Dutchess County it was enough to secure victories in Congressional seats that Democrats had not won for a century. The then-27th district, including southern Dutchess, southern Sullivan, Orange, Putnam and part of Rockland, elected John Dow. He would be a liberal’s liberal in Congress, one of the first members to oppose the Vietnam War. Where many of those elected in the Johnson landslide were swept out two years later in a very strong year for Republicans, Dow survived the ’66 election but lost to Martin McKneally, a Nixon law-and-order man, in 1968. McKneally turned out to be a words-not-deeds law n’ order guy, however, and lost a rematch in 1970 amidst revelations that he was a tax evader. Dow’s tenure in Congress finally ended in 1972 when moderate Republican Ben Gilman defeated him and installed a deathgrip on the seat, which eventually became a Rockland/Orange/Westchester seat. The northern Dutchess seat stretched north to Columbia County and west through and beyond the Catskills; it elected Joseph Resnick in 1964. Unlike Dow, Resnick was a strong defender of Johnson’s war policy and cut a more moderate figure on Capitol Hill. He too was reelected in 1966 despite the Republican tide, but gave up his seat in ’68 to run for the Senate (he lost the primay). Resnick was replaced by Hamilton Fish III, who held the seat as it becamse a southern Dutchess/Putnam/Westchester seat.

The other local Democratic wins in 1964 included a Dutchess judge’s election to the state Supreme Court as well as Victor Waryas, who captured an Assembly seat he would hold until 1968 (safe to say ’68 was not a banner year for Dutchess Dems). Locals will recognize the Waryas name from the park on the Poughkeepsie waterfront from which Joe Bertolozzi’s Bridge Music is broadcast in perpetuity.

The Johnson landslide created many wins in terms of quantity, but these proved relatively fleeting. While Obama’s coattails certainly helped this year, Johnson in ’64 was winning by such a large margin that he couldn’t help but bring others into office with him. The test of 2012 will be whether those folks last longer than the local class of ’64.

4. 2007

After four consecutive blowout wins, Republican County Executive Bill Steinhaus finally had a real fight on his hands. Democrats nominated Wappinger Town Supervisor Joe Ruggiero, who amassed a significant warchest previously unseen in local Democratic circles. He fell short by just 2,064 votes, or 3.3%. But with a viable top of the ticket, Democrats won control of the Dutchess County legislature for the first time since 1979. They also won control of the Dover town board, the Beacon mayoralty, and netted gains on the Poughkeepsie city council and East Fishkill, Pawling and Red Hook town boards.

It wasn’t a flawless year for Democrats, however. In addition to Ruggiero falling just short, the incoming legislative majority could have been larger had two Democratic incumbents not lost their seats. Republicans gained control of the Milan and Rhinebeck town boards and captured the mayoralty in Poughkeepsie. They would strike back with a vengeance in 2009 to retake the legislature.

 5. 1977

Yeah, the history of good Democratic years in Dutchess County starts to thin out pretty quickly. 1977 is probably the best contender because it’s the other year – besides 2007 – that Democrats won a county legislature majority, in addition to a decent year at the town and city level. ’77 is particularly important to the county’s political history because of what would transpire in the following months: Republican County Executive Ed Schuler would be indicted and convicted of bribery, leading to his resignation in early 1978. The legislature was empowered to appoint a new executive to serve out Schuler’s term; with the legislature now under Democratic control, it chose Majority Leader Lucille Pattison of Hyde Park to step into the executive’s role. She thus became the only Democratic and only female county exec in Dutchess history and was elected to full terms in 1979, 1983 and 1987.

Honorable Mention: 2005

Dems picked up four seats in the county legislature and were a hair’s breadth from capturing the majority, positioning them to do so in 2007. Diane Jablonski was elected county comptroller – the first Democrat in decades to win that office.  In the Town of Wappinger, Democrats won the supervisor and clerk races as well as maintaining a town board majority.  In Hyde Park, Democrats captured the supervisor seat and the town board majority. Bill Dahncke became the first Democrat elected to the East Fishkill town board since former Town Supervisor Dominick Cannizzaro left office. Dems also held a rare town board seat in Beekman; few incumbent Democrats were defeated anywhere in the county.

We can quibble over details like what constitutes a “legitimate” safety net beyond food or the fact that “some” bridges and roads does not begin to address our national infrastructure woes. But I’ll give Representative Adam Kinzinger a bit of credit for thinking slightly out of the box on the matter of tax rates:

“…I don’t care what tax rates are, they are random number derived from haggling and negotiations. What I want is a small government with a strong and fierce military that can kill our enemies and break their toys, legitimate safety nets that provide food and not a way of life, and some roads and bridges. Put that vision into action and set the tax rates at a percent that covers those costs. And once you have our payment, leave us the hell alone. That my friend, is conservatism.”

However – there’s always a however – that doesn’t explain, Mr. Kinzinger, why you and virtually every other “conservative” in Congress have signed Grover Norquist’s pledge not to raise any tax rates by any amount. If you now believe in honest budgeting, fantastic! I’m glad you feel elections matter. I agree – they do! But it means it’s time for you to renounce Norquist. We can’t budget around the priorities you describe if we have an artificial box around how we balance our numbers. That’s not to say rates absolutely must go up – it’s to say that our approach to budgeting cannot be constrained by external political pressures like a tax pledge that never made sense in the first place.

• I’m sorry my liveblog tailed off so early tonight. I left the computer lab to go to the county Dem gathering at Shadows in Poughkeepsie, where the wifi infrastructure is not up to snuff. I had to constantly reconnect and had long lulls with no connection. So getting results and relaying them to the people in the room was hard enough, let alone processing them in a meaningful fashion here. So I had to abandon that effort. For those who were following, thank you. I hope that in the coming days I can provide something worth reading in appreciation for those who drop by this blog to see what I have to say. I am deeply grateful for any and all eyeballs who make their way over here.

• Thank you so much to everyone who put something into the electoral process this year, on any side – whether as a poll worker or a campaign staffer or volunteer. In particular, let me thank two people on the ground. One is my collaborator here, Matt Clausen, who decamped for Ohio in June to reelect the president. The result was that Matt couldn’t post here throughout the season, but he has provided myriad sanity checks and news flashes and a man-on-the-ground sensibility that fueled my race ratings this autumn. And thanks to my brother, Patrick Kelly, who spent the final weeks of this campaign in Colorado helping to turn a tough race – one we weren’t sure we’d pull off – into another victory for Barack Obama in that state. I think I’m capable of separating my forecasting and analysis from my rooting interest; my race ratings, for one, have been incredibly sober. But I do root, and Matt and Pat uprooted for the cause, and I respect and thank them for it.

• Democrats made a lot of history in Dutchess County tonight. I’ll be writing in more depth about that in the coming days. But this was the greatest night in the history of the Dutchess County Democratic Party. Congratulations are in order for all of the party’s candidates and for chairwoman Elisa Sumner.

• After the 2008 election, I was talking with a wise Republican colleague of mine. She noted that her side couldn’t keep picking groups of people and saying, “We don’t want your vote.” Four years later, the situation is little changed. I’m talking here about minorities and immigrants and gays and the non-religious and college students and even a great many women…the list is awfully large, and some notable segments of it are growing quickly. Now, I think Republicans would find that to be an overly-dramatic statement. After all, so many of them are pretty chill – at least in theory – with the groups I just named. But at some point policy matters. Tone matters. The Republican Party, over the last last four years, has demonstrated that it is at worst hostile and at best ill at ease with these groups. Elections aren’t going to get any easier for them if that remains the case. Even if they do win under those circumstances, they’ll find that governing with that hostility or ill-ease is quite difficult. It’s time for an adult discussion about feelings and policy when it comes to many segments of the American public. And look, it cuts both ways occasionally – I think a lot of liberals could do more to understand where the religious are coming from, for example. But let’s not pretend that the shortcomings are equal at this moment in time.

• I have subsisted largely on doughnuts today. I spent six hours driving to Scranton and back, four hours on doors, some time writing, and then it was results time, so dinner didn’t happen. I am looking forward to cooking something fantastic tomorrow.

Here’s where I’ll be tonight. All times eastern. Refresh often.

First thing to note: parts of Indiana and Kentucky close their polls at 6:00 eastern time, which is absurd. But that means we already have some results. With a small number of precincts reporting, Richard Mourdock (R) is leading Joe Donnelly (D) by 4.5 points in the Indiana senate race. Keep in mind this evening that WTM has Donnelly picking this seat up for Democrats, as part of our overall forecast of no net change in the Senate (3 Rep pickups canceled out by 3 Dem pickups).

7:05 We have a long way to go in this Senate race, but we’re up to 4% counted now, and Mourdock’s lead has shrunk to about 2 points (CNN has more results but doesn’t report to a decimal place). Right now Romney is leading Obama 60-38 in Indiana atop the ticket, which is unrealistic: Indiana is not rocketing all the way back to its ’04 numbers. Remember that Obama won this state four years ago. He won’t this time, but that margin’s going to close, and as it does, Donnelly will pull ahead.

7:11 Yeah, I’m feeling pretty good about Donnelly even with so few precincts in. That’s because Mourdock is leading narrowly, and we haven’t seen any of Marion (Indianapolis), St. Joseph (South Bend/Notre Dame) or Lake (Gary) counties yet. Nor Vanderburgh (Evansville) or LaPorte counties). These are Indiana’s most Democratic counties, and they are populous places. Barring the unexpected, we’re headed toward the first senate flip of the night, which is helpful for Dems as they seek to maintain a Senate majority.

7:21 Indiana-8 is a longshot pickup opportunity for Dems. We can start to get a decent read on it, because a lot of the IN precincts which have already reported are in the 8th. Republican incumbent Larry Bucshon leads by 0.9%.

7:24 7% in; Donnelly now up about 2% as votes start to come in from Lake and Marion counties. The city of Gary is ultra-Democratic as are some of the neighboring towns. Marion County is coterminous with Indianapolis; there’s some red suburban territory in there but in federal races Indy is essentially Democratic now (twas not always thus).

7:27 Ben Chandler (Kentucky-6) is a Democratic survivor from the 2010 wipeout, and he’s in a rematch with the man who he narrowly beat: Andy Barr. This is a top target for the Reps, but we have it at Lean Dem. Barr is up by 10 votes right now, but none of Fayette County has reported. Fayette includes Lexington, and is one of the bluer counties in Kentucky.

7:29 In other House news, Wacky Jackie Walorski is favored to pick up IN-2 for the Reps; this is the seat Donnelly has vacated to run for Senate. It was made redder in redistricting. Walorski has a comfortable lead in the early count, but that’s without any of South Bend reporting.

7:42 Not much erosion for Obama in Kentucky relative to 2008. Dave Leip’s site is not loading consistently – he apparently was not equipped for election night traffic – so my access to historical data might be somewhat limited tonight. But most counties look to be coming at roughly same percentages as 2008. Harder to judge turnout this early. I mention this not because Kentucky is a swing state, but specifically because it is not: the disparity in national versus state polling has led us to assume that Obama must be doing worse than before in non-swing states. KY is not an indicator of that.

7:45 Let’s talk about a bigger fish in the presidential race: Florida. Early Obama lead (50%-49%). With the ultra-red panhandle not closing for another 15 minutes and nothing in yet from populous counties like Miami-Dade (good for Dems) or Polk (good for Reps), I don’t have a feel yet for this one. My assumption has been a Romney win in Florida, of course.

7:54 As my good friend Chris Kelly just pointed out, the Florida numbers are bizarre. CNN has 34% reporting…everyone else 4-5%. CNN knows something that no one else does?

8:00 Indiana update: St. Louis County (South Bend, home of the Fighting Irish) has largely reported. That moved Brendan Mullen ahead significantly in IN-2, but let’s see if that holds up. Walorski will fight back in the much redder areas of the district, obviously. Marion is also starting to come in, so statewide numbers are more useful now. Romney is down to a 10-11 point lead in Indiana, depending on which results you look at. That falls in line with my expectation that Indiana ’12 will be a midpoint between Indiana ’04 (big Bush win) and Indiana ’08 (narrow Obama win). Lastly, Donnelly leads by 6.3% in the Senate race. Dems are on top in the first of the Abortion Derbies in the Senate – Mizzou being the other.

8:09 Florida update: Some erosion for Obama relative to ’08 in populous, suburban Polk County. McCain won 52.5-46.3 in 2008; Romney leads 53.4-45.7. That’s a smallish gain, but played out across the state – along with Romney improvements in the super-red panhandle, which we’re seeing so far – might be enough to flip it. Romney absolutely has to have Florida; I’m waiting for the other shoe to drop here.

8:20 Let’s do a House update. Buchson is pulling away in IN-8 (southwest corner). Reps should be OK there. Mullen has a big lead with half of the vote counted in IN-2; he’s going to gain some more ground in LaPorte County so that’s still very much in play as a difficult Dem hold. But it looks like Ben Chandler might be toast in KY-6; Barr is up 5 and much of Fayette County is in, so I don’t see where he makes up ground. He had momentum late; should’ve changed it to Tilt Dem or even Tilt Rep.

8:24 The Florida goofiness continues. CNN shows an Obama lead, with 45% counted. Everyone else shows a narrower Romney lead, with 23-31% reporting. That could mean that on their way to 45%, Obama will retake the lead. Or it means CNN is watching a different game, as they’ve been known to do in Florida sometimes.

8:26 I haven’t mentioned Virginia yet, because we didn’t have anything from Fairfax County. As that starts to roll in, the current ginormous Romney lead will diminish and we’ll get a sense of where things stand there.

8:27 CNN added a bunch of results in Florida – 50% reported, 50-50 tie. Obama up by 6,536 votes statewide.

8:32 Networks are already calling the Connecticut Senate race for Chris Murphy. So Dems replace Joe Lieberman with, you know, an actual Democrat. And Linda McMahon loses again, in a race Republicans spent September thinking they might pick up. She won’t be missed on the American political scene.

8:32 Relocating to Shadows – I’ll be back online within a half hour in a new thread.

Georgia’s 12th District
There’s not a lot of data or reporting to influence this minor change – but the fact that Democrats have produced two polls showing their man John Barrow surviving, while Republican challenger Lee Anderson has been mum, tells me that there is a better shot than I thought of Barrow holding on in a district which is much redder post-redistricting. I still think the Reps pick this seat up, but I’m less confident about that result than I was a week ago.
From Lean Republican to Tilt Republican

Maine’s 2nd District
Republicans bluster every two years about this being in play. It’s not. Shouldn’t have fallen for their game.
From Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic

Massachusetts’ 6th District
Our initial set of House Ratings had this district at Tilt Republican, but that was probably foolish. Democratic incumbent John Tierney has basically acknowledged in a campaign ad that he didn’t do enough to deal with his wife’s  family’s tax-evasion shenanigans, and Richard Tisei’s internal polls include a 17-point lead. Tisei will be the only openly-gay Republican serving in Congress in 2013, and he’ll be the first Republican from Massachusetts to win a House seat since Peter Blute and Peter Torkildsen lost their seats in 1996 – Torkildsen losing to Tierney that year, in fact.
From Tilt Republican to Likely Republican

Minnesota’s 8th District
I’ve always believed that Dems could retake this district, but doubted whether long-ago Congressman Rick Nolan was the man to do it, especially if this overwhelmingly white, working-class territory saw the sort of erosion atop the ticket that we expect for that demographic this year. But almost every poll has Nolan up, and though Obama won’t repeat his 53% from 2008 here, it seems like freshman Chip Cravaack just has too much headwind to work against.
From Tilt Republican to Tilt Democratic

North Carolina’s 8th District
I was working on a North Carolina House Calls piece that would look at this district (and NC’s other competitive races) in depth, but this ain’t my day job, sadly, and time ran out – plus I journeyed to Pennsylvania and back today for GOTV, which is not a quick trip. Anyway, in that piece I would have shifted Larry Kissell’s seat closer to a GOP takeover. We already had the Rep challenger, state senator David Rouzer, winning here – the question is how strongly we feel. The national party gave up on Kissell a while ago in this turf, which was made much redder in redistricting. Kissell doesn’t raise much money and doesn’t campaign all that well; his survival in 2010 was somewhat surprising. Anyway, hedging with a Lean rating is unnecessary.
From Lean Republican to Likely Republican

Note that the Minnesota pickup shifts our overall projection for the House to a +4 net gain for Democrats – leaving the GOP with 238 seats and Democrats with 197. Our revised table of ratings for the competitive races:

Overview
Illinois faces a unique set of circumstances in its Congressional elections this year. Like many states, it saw a wave of House seats fall into Republican hands during the 2010 wave elections. But unlike many of larger states where this occurred, Democrats maintained control of the governorship and the state legislature. This allowed the Dems to undo an incumbent-protection plan from 2002 and draw a friendlier map designed to regain a number of seats lost in 2010.

The Land of Lincoln lost one seat during reapportionment; the 16th district’s veteran Republican incumbent Don Manzullo was drawn into a primary with freshman Adam Kinzinger from the 11th. The younger, more energetic newcomer won the primary and now has what is expected to be a same district for the foreseeable future. So the current 11-8 Republican advantage in the Illinois delegation is effectively 10-8 going into this year’s elections.

If Democrats are to make a dent in the Republican House majority, they need 3-5 pickups in Illiniois, and they need to hold their sole endangered seat (the 12th district).

The Safe Seats:
Seven of Illinois’ seats are based in the City of Chicago; all are safely Democratic. Republicans last won a Congressional district in the city in 1994, when a GOP wave and a scandal-plagued incumbent gave them the Northside’s 5th district for a single term. The 1st, 2nd and 7th districts are majority-African American districts in accordance with the Voting Rights Acts; the 1st and 2nd cover the South Side while the 7th covers the Downtown/Loop and the Near West Side. Eahc includes more suburban territory than their previous incarnations. The 4th is the Hispanic-majority VRA district – earmuff-shaped to join Hispanic neighborhoods on the North and South sides. The 3rd is a majority-white district in Southwest Chicago (plus some suburbs); Republicans lack a bench here but it’s not nearly as Democratic in federal races as the rest of the city. Finally, the 9th district covers the Lakefront and places like Evanston, Skokie and Winnetka and includes one of the larger population of affluent white liberals anywhere in the country.

Illinois’ 6th district covers a sprawling portion of the city’s western suburbs, including Downers Grove, Wheaton, Lake Zurich, Palatine and the northeastern part of Naperville. It has been a Republican district for more than a century. Dems almost picked it up in 2006 when Tammy Duckworth ran for an open seat, but Peter Roskam won, expanded his margin in 2008, and is now utterly safe. The same goes for freshman Randy Hultgren further west in the 14th, which stretches from McHenry and Marengo in the north to Batavia and Geneva further south and to Plainfield beyond that. The 15th district is one of only two that John McCain would have carried in 2008 under the new lines; it covers the southeastern portion of the state, including Danville and Effingham. The other McCain district is the significantly-revised 18th, covering parts of Peoria, Springfield, Bloomington-Normal and smaller towns like Quincy and Jacksonville. Aaron Schock will easily win again there before running for governor in two years. The final safe Republican district was mentioned above – Adam Kinzinger’s new 16th, covering eastern Rockford, DeKalb, Mendota and part of the Illinois River Valley.

The Competitive Seats:

Illinois’ 8th Congressional District – Northwest Chicago suburbs including Elgin, Schaumburg, Elk Grove Village
Last flip: 2010
Joe Walsh was one of the least likely winners of 2010, narrowly defeating a moderate Democrat who had appeared to cement her hold on the district after becoming the first Dem to win it in the modern era in 2004. Walsh is the quintessential Tea Partier in terms of ideology, settled a lawsuit by his ex-wife for failing to pay $115,000 in child support, and making outlandish comments about abortions to protect a mother’s health. With all of that, he surely would have lost his old district this time out. But Democrats made sure of it, redrawing it about six points bluer. On top of all that, he drew a powerhouse challenger in Tammy Duckworth. She’s pulling away in polls, and it’s hard to see how Walsh holds on here.
Rating: Likely Democratic

Illinois’ 10th Congressional District – Northern Chicago suburbs including Waukegan, Buffalo Grove, Highland Park, part of Northbrook
Last flip: 1980
This district elects relatively moderate Republicans to Congress with few exceptions. But as a 61% Obama district, Dems targeted it as one of their few pickup opportunities in 2010 when incumbent Mark Kirk ran for the U.S. Senate. But even with a plausible candidate in friendly territory, Dems couldn’t get it done. Bob Dold was elected, and immediately targeted by redistricters, who increased the Obama percentage to 63%. Moderate Democratic businessman Brad Schneider opened a sizable lead in a recent poll, but we’ve seen Dold come from behind before – granted, not this far. Dold has largely distanced himself from the extremists in the House GOP caucus, and I think that’s enough – just barely enough – to help him survive as the region’s voters applaud him for being reasonable. We set the bar low these days.
Ratings: Tilt Republican

Illinois’ 11th Congressional District – Southwestern Chicago exurbs including Aurora, Bolingbrook, Joliet, southwestern Naperville
Last flip: 2010 (Aurora and Joliet)
Redistricting was not kind to 7-term Republican incumbent Judy Biggert. The Obama percentage rose from 54% to 61% and less than half of the district’s voters come from her current 13th district. She is being challenged by Bill Foster, who served the old 14th district for a term and a half before losing in 2010. A physicist and businessman with considerable personal wealth and moderate sensibilities, Foster is a tough opponent, even for the relatively-moderate Biggert. Like the 10th, this one’s incredibly tight with surprisingly little polling. Republicans sounded the alarm last week though, indicating that Biggert urgently needs funds to survive on Tuesday. She doesn’t seem nimble on the campaign trail, and the sense here is that Foster has the momentum.
Rating: Tilt Democratic

Illinois’ 12th Congressional District – Southwestern Illinois, including East St. Louis, Alton, Mt. Vernon, Carbondale, Cairo
Last flip: 1944
Democrats have held the East St. Louis district since before the end of World War II, but that streak may come to an end this year. Incumbent Jerry Costello is retiring, opening a seat that feels like a danger area for Democrats – white, working-class, mostly rural. It’s a district where Obama won 55% in 2008, but he’ll probably fall a bit short of that this time. Carrying the blue flag here is General Bill Enyart, former head of the Illinois National Guard. Republicans are sending out Jason Plummer, who ran statewide for lieutenant governor two years ago and lost. Enyart seems like the better candidate on paper and leads in a pair of recent polls, but this district seems like it could be headed toward swing territory.
Rating: Tilt Democratic

Illinois’ 13th Congressional District – Central Illinois, including Champaign, Decatur, most of Springfield, parts of Bloomington-Normal
Last flip: 1938
This is effectively the descendant of the current 15th district, but it bears little resemblance to the seat Tim Johnson is vacating. Former Congressional staffer Rodney Davis is hoping to replace him, but he’s fighting on blue turf (55% Obama). Democratic physician David Gill was thought to be a lightweight candidate; national Democrats were disappointed when he won the primary. But Gill has proven to be a competent campaigner, and local Republicans have had  to sort through some angst about the way David was selected (Johnson bailed after winning the primary, so a replacement candidate was chosen by local party leaders). I didn’t expect this one to go Dems’ way, but Gill seems to have the edge.
Rating: Tilt Democratic

Illinois’ 17th Congressional District – Quad Cities, western Rockford, most of Peoria, Galesburg
Last flip: 2010
This race is exceedingly difficult to call. The Quad Cities area sent Democrats to Congress from 1982 to 2010; this was a late-breaking district in that year’s Republican wave and one which I deemed unlikely to flip even in my worst-case scenario for Democrats. But flip it did, a credit to the hard work of local pizzeria owner Bobby Schilling.

So will it flip right back? The district is now three points bluer after redistricting, and Schilling campaigned as a Tea Partier…this district should revert to the mean, no? That’s what I thought coming into the year. But Schilling has adapted somewhat to reality in the House, eschewing some of the Tea Party’s positions and fashioning a record that is occasionally labor-friendly. That should help him out in this blue-collar district with a decent proportion of union households. It should be noted, too, that as much as Schilling only reached the radar screen late in the 2010 campaign, he ended up winning by 10 points – a significant margin for the district and for a lower-tier race.

Schilling faces East Moline alderwoman Cheri Bustos, winner of a difficult Democratic pimary. Polling is tight but has been moving in Bustos’ direction. Both sides have poured money into the race; it’s near the top of Democratic takeover lists and presents something of a “Well, if not here, then where?” dilemma for the party. Presidential coattails will be present but seem unlikely to be enormous; Obama is not polling nearly as well in Illinois as he did four years ago. It is truly too close to call with any confidence, but we’re picking Bustos. The rationale: The Quad Cities media market crosses into Iowa – a presidential battleground state. Obama spent the first half of the year tied or trailing in Iowa; more recently he has opened up a lead in one of his most important states. Part of what has enabled this is the spring and summer advertising push – a push which has necessarily played out in this part of Illinois due to the market overlap. If Iowans are increasingly in the president’s camp, I suspect this district will drop off less for Obama than others in Illinois. That should be enough to get Bustos just barely over the top.
Rating: Tilt Democratic

Summary: +4 pickups for Dems, but all on a knife’s edge: they could get a fifth, or they could come away with only one (Walsh) if the Republican incumbents can finish strong.