Within the Margin

Next Tuesday’s election will see many seats changing hands in the House of Representatives – but Within the Margin sees very little change in the overall partisan breakdown of the House. Having painstakingly rated all 435 seats over the course of this year, we see Republicans winning 239 seats to 196 for Democrats. That equates to a +3 net gain for Democrats. Given how much ground Republicans gained in 2010 and the likelihood of some ebb and flow from that high-water mark, we spent the year figuring that it would be a little bit higher than that – more like 7-10 seats. But recruiting shortfalls in otherwise-winnable districts, coupled with newly-drawn maps that will take a bit of work for Democrats to unlock, have created a dynamic that seems likely to result in roughly equal takeover totals for both parties.

Several factors are at play in creating a scenario where the parties’ respective pickups will largely offset each other:

Cartographic Casualties (and Protections)

This is a redistricting cycle, meaning every state had to redraw Congressional and legislative lines in accordance with 2010 Census data. Some seats changed very little; some were utterly transformed. Some were eliminated (in states whose population growth lagged) while fast-growing states gained seats. With Republicans controlling state legislatures and governorships in many competitive states, they had a free hand to draw favorable maps that will, at least for now, lock in many of their gains from the 2010 midterm elections.  Examples include Ohio and Pennsylvania, two states where oodles of seats changed hands in 2006, 2008 and 2010 but where few – possibly none – will do so this time around. The Republicans went on the redistricting offensive in North Carolina, securing their 2010 pickup and giving themselves strong pickup opportunities in four(!) Dem-held districts.

Democrats had fewer instances in which they controlled the mapping process, but they used it to create numerous pickup opportunities in Illinois and to create a strong takeover chance in a western Maryland district.

States with independent redistricting processes such as Arizona and California tended to see a higher proportion of competitive seats. A court-drawn map in New York has created an abundance of closely-matched seats, though not all of the races have turned out to be particularly close.

No Wave

Every discussion of the state of play in the House this year references the lack of a “wave” favoring one party or another. After three consecutive cycles of big gains for one party of the other – Dems winning big in 2006 and 2008, Reps erasing those gains and then some in 2010 – this year does not feature a headwind for either party. Neither presidential candidate is headed for a landslide; he might have some regional strengths that pull some House candidates into office on his coattails but Romney’s not bringing as many Republicans to the House as Reagan did in 1980, nor is Obama bringing in as many Democrats as he did four years ago.

Washing Out the Crazies

Every wave election brings in some people who are woefully out of touch with their districts or who are not personally suited for higher office; 2010 was no different. People like Joe Walsh and Allen West are volatile bomb-throwers representing moderate districts; the odious Walsh is almost assuredly a goner and we think West will narrowly lose as well.

We also think Steve King in Iowa has met his match – Iowa had to lose a seat in Congressional redistricting, meaning his seat is more Democratic than it used to be. But he has certainly not adjusted his tone to his new constituents.

Republicans may have had the upper hand in terms of seats won and lost through redistricting, but they brought in so many freshman on their 2010 tide that some will be washed back out to sea, helping Democrats to eke out a small net gain this year.

In the chart below, we follow our likely/lean/tilt system, which is elaborated upon in our Senate post. Seats currently held by Republicans are listed in red and those currently held by Democrats in blue; those seats which due to redistricting pit a Democratic incumbent against a Republican incumbent are listed in purple. Some seats are brand-new because the state gained seats (i.e. AZ-9) or adopted a dramatically different map and have no incumbent; these are listed in black. So as an example, NY-24 is currently Republican-held but we see it flipping to Dems; it is depicted in red but under the Lean Dem column.

A number of seats will be changing party control that are not reflected on the chart below. That’s because we’ve rated those seats as Safe takeovers – these include Arkansas’ 4th district, where Democrat Mike Ross is retiring and seems certain to be replaced by Republican Tom Cotton; North Carolina’s 13th district, where Democrat Brad Miller is retiring after being dealt an unwinnable hand in redistricting and is virtually guaranteed to be replaced by Republican George Holding.

Brief writeups for each seat are coming up as the week continues.