Within the Margin

Last Friday, we posted some analysis and ratings for each competitive senate seat. Today, we look at the other 18 Senate races: the ones we’ve called safe for one party or the other. Lest you think that there’s no juice to these, this group of races includes:

• One surefire Republican pickup (Nebraska) which is an important starting point for the GOP in their request to retake control of the Senate – and which didn’t have to be: Democrats made a serious tactical error here.

• Some seats (Hawaii, New Mexico) which were considered potentially competitive earlier in the year. We’ll talk about why they’re not looking that way anymore, but it should be noted that late-breaking news could shift one or two back onto our radar screen.

• An intriguing independent candidate spending big bucks in Maryland – and maybe finishing 2nd in the process.

• A quick update on Christine O’Donnell’s political ambitions.

• The Empire State. A good chunk of our readership has ties to New York, which is included in today’s rundown.

• A Republican winning from the left in Tennessee. I’m serious! Sort of.

Without further ado, our look at the safe seats. Remember, to garner a Safe rating, an election must feature fundamentals that are just too strongly in favor of the leading party – the partisan lean of the state being the biggest factor, followed by the relative popularity or weakness (baggage, poor fundraising) of the respective candidates. Something dramatic needs to happen for the favored candidate to lose – arrests or scandals might do it, but even a wave election probably wouldn’t lap up on the shores of these states.

And keep in mind that most of the Senate seats up this year feature Democratic incumbents; that’s because in the previous two elections featuring this class of senators, Democrats picked up a net of 4 seats in 2000 and 6 seats in 2006. As a result, they’re playing mostly defense this year.

 

California

The Golden State used to have competitive senate elections; in 1994, Diane Feinstein held on by less than two points. Of course, Michael Huffington spent $30 million that year to keep it close. The 2010 race looked close for a while – again, Republicans found a challenger with fundraising chops as Carly Fiorina’s campaign spent $17M against Barbara Boxer. But in the end, Boxer won by 10 points. This year, Republican recruiting was a non-event – if Fiorina and Meg Whitman, despite their business fame and all their millions, couldn’t be competitive in the most Republican-friendly cycle in generations, than who could pull off a win in California in a presidential year?

So taking on Diane Feinstein this year is Elizabeth Emken, a lobbyist for Autism Speaks. That’s not a bad launching point for a campaign in a smaller jurisdiction – state legislature, perhaps, or another shot at a Congressional bid – but scaling up to a Senate race in the country’s largest state is not easy. It’s even harder when your issue positions are rather boilerplate; a statewide Republican candidate in California needs to distinguish herself on ideas in order to have a chance at victory. Emken doesn’t do so, she has raised little money for a race of this magnitude, and accordingly polling has shown her stuck in the mid to low 30s. Feinstein will win a fourth full term despite rather mediocre approval ratings.

Rating: Safe Democratic

 

Delaware

In 2010, the First State’s Senate race provided more laughs than any other. Sadly, Christine O’Donnell opted to sit out the 2012 cycle after three failed Senate bids in a row. But fear not: she’s keeping her options open for a 2014 return. In the meantime, Delaware’s senate race has little going for it. Democrat Tom Carper captured this seat from a five-term incumbent in 2000. He was re-elected with 70% in 2006 against a guy who beat O’Donnell in the Republican primary, and he should approach that lofty number this time against Kevin Wade, a businessman with little political experience and a somewhat odd haircut.

Delaware used to be Republican-leaning, but that has changed dramatically in the last two decades. Along with that change has come the total disappearance of a GOP bench in the state. Throw in local man Joe Biden’s presence on the ballot this year, and all of this, combined with his own solid approval ratings, means that Carper can stake a claim to being the safest Democratic senator in the country this year.

Rating: Safe Democratic

 

Hawaii

Democratic incumbent Daniel Akaka is retiring, and both parties are probably running their strongest respective candidates to replace him. Three-term incumbent representative Mazie Hirono defeated Ed Case in the primary; she was the more liberal choice but that’s hardly a hindrance in Hawaii – in fact it’s the smart move, given the lengthy history of Case irking the grassroots with conservative stances and general egomania. Republicans are running former two-term governor Linda Lingle. She’s fairly moderate, and she has her own TV channel! Because everyone wants to watch more campaign ads!

In another year, maybe Lingle would have a shot. Hawaii has given Republicans a chance at the federal level before; Pat Saiki won multiple House terms in the 1980s and Charles Djou briefly held a House seat – albeit under unusual circumstances – in 2010. But this is the president’s birthplace and the state where he rolled up his highest percentage in 2008. Spring and summer polling occasionally showed Lingle making it competitive, but more recently she’s had trouble even breaking 40% while Hirono comfortably clears the 50% mark. We thought about keeping this Likely Democratic, but we were certain that in another week or so, we’d be moving it to Safe Dem. So we’re going to go ahead and pull the trigger now.

Rating: Safe Democratic 

 

Maryland

This was an open seat in 2006, and Republicans thought they had a shot with Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele. His campaign never really took off, but he did parlay it into an interesting and “empathetic” stint as RNC chairman. Congressman Ben Cardin won that election by 10 points. The question this year is whether Cardin will double that winning margin, or truly clear the bar by tripling it. He faces two opponents: underfunded Republican Dan Bongino, a former Secret Service Agent, and the rather well-funded independent Rob Sobhani, an author and president of an energy consulting firm. Sobhani has an interesting platform that seeks many worthy investments in infrastructure and research, meaning that they would go nowhere in a Congress where the GOP continues to control one or both houses. Points for trying, though.

Sobhani dropped some serious coin on a hefty ad buy last month and as a result was just one point behind the Republican candidate in a recent Gonzales Research poll. But that still left him 29 points behind Cardin. If Sobhani can generate some momentum and pass Bongino, it would be a real kick in the teeth to the already down-and-out Maryland Republican Party. Cardin will cruise here, so we’re curious about margins and whether this upstart indy candidate can put together a respectable showing in November.

Rating: Safe Democratic

 

Minnesota

When Mark Dayton retired in 2006, his Minnesota Senate seat seemed like it would be somewhat competitive. But the race between Democratic (DFL, to be precise) Hennepin County prosecutor Amy Klobuchar and Republican Congressman Mark Kennedy stayed close only briefly. Klobuchar never trailed in a poll, and was pulling away by late summer. She ended up winning by 20 points while Kennedy was replaced in the House by a crazy woman.

Sensible politicos will take the over on whether Klobuchar will exceed her 2006 margin this year against Kurt Bills, a social studies teacher and Rosemount city councilman who defeated a Democratic incumbent in a 2010 race for State Representative. Bills is a Paulist but like many of that ilk he gets confused about what “small government” actually means when it comes to people’s personal lives; he voted for an amendment to the state constitution to ban same-sex marriage in Minnesota.

Bills has raised little money. Klobuchar has a very positive approval rating in Minnesota and her lead in polls has ranged from 14 to 29 points.  After flirting with swing-state status in the early 2000s, Minnesota has been mostly friendly to statewide Democrats in recent cycles. Klobuchar wins easily; can she top 60% this time?

Rating: Safe Democratic

 

Mississippi

Former Congressman Roger Wicker had to work a bit in 2008 when he ran to fill the remainder of Trent Lott’s senate term. That year, former Democratic governor Ronnie Musgrove was competitive in funding and Democrats targeted the state aggressively in October after some close poll results. Wicker ended up winning 55-45% in the closest Senate race Mississippi has seen since 1988. He’ll win much more easily this year against Albert N. Gore, Jr., a distance relative of the former vice president who is 82 and chairs the Oktibbeha County Democratic Party. Mississippi politics are entirely race-based; white voters vote Republican and black voters vote Democratic. That means Democrats have a higher floor than in some states, especially if turnout is high in the presidential race as it was in 2008. But they also have a ceiling. Wicker will clear 60% with ease, probably pushing 70%. Democrats have a long way to go before they have the bench, money and issues to win Senate races in Mississippi.

Rating: Safe Republican

 

Nebraska

Republican Deb Fischer is a lock to pick up this seat, which Democrats have held since 1988 (and before that, from 1976 to 1987). Ben Nelson was a popular Nebraska governor in the 1990s who held this seat for Dems in 2000 when Bob Kerrey retired. He won again easily in the Dem-friendly year of 2006, but opted to retire this year rather than face a very difficult race in a state that Mitt Romney will carry easily (though it should be noted that Nebraska splits its electoral votes by Congressional district, and Barack Obama was able to win the Omaha-based 2nd district in 2008 to pick up one Nebrasks electoral vote).

Fischer, a down-the-line conservative (except when it’s personally inconvenient) rancher who serves in Nebraska’s unicameral state legislature looked like the third wheel for most of the Republican primary campaign. Attorney General Jon Bruning had eyed this seat for many years, as had State Treasurer Don Stenberg. But Stenberg is starting to feel like a perennial candidate and didn’t bring anything new to the campaign, and Bruning came under attack for ethics problems in his state office (not to mention the perceived sin of having been a liberal Democrat when he was younger). Fischer gained steam in the campaign’s final weeks and beat Bruning by five points.

But Fischer is not an electoral juggernaut. It is entirely the fault of one man’s outsized ego and the Democrats’ national senate campaign arm (the DSCC) that this race is not more competitive. Chuck Hassebrook was in the race and was a legitimate candidate. As an elected member of the University of Nebraska Board of Regents and Executive Director of the Center for Rural Affairs, Hassebrook had an interesting profile, some connections, and impeccable Nebraska ties. But the DSCC begged former governor and senator Kerrey to get into the race after Nelson retired, and Kerrey eventually agreed. Hassebrook stepped aside and effectively, the race ended. That’s because while Kerrey was extremely popular as a governor and senator, and maintained a number of businesses in his native state, he hadn’t lived in Nebraska in recent years. He had taken a job as president of the New School in New York City. That’s fine; I’d certainly like to be a university president myself. But going from making noises about running for mayor of New York to running for senator in Nebraska is a tall order. Kerrey has always been something of a celebrity politician and I suspect his ego made it hard to pass on this race. But he has not been remotely competitive despite raising a decent bit of money: Fischer’s polling lead in in the mid-to-high teens right now and barring a shocking development, it’s not getting closer. Would Democrats have won with Hassebrook in this red state? No, probably not. But he would have run a more plausible campaign, surely.

Rating: Safe Republican

 

New Jersey

In 2006, newly-appointed Democratic incumbent Robert Menendez was not well known by New Jersey voters, and he spent the year posting too-close-for-comfort leads against a Republican state senator with a famous name, Tom Kean, Jr – son of a popular former governor. Menendez ended up winning by nine points, but only after I (and others) spent the fall wringing our hands over the prospect of losing a Senate seat in New Jersey; recall that Dems were trying to flip the Senate that year and did so, 51-49…but Republicans would have maintained control had Menendez lost.

Six years later, Menendez is still not well known by New Jersey voters. I would theorize that this is in part because Chris Christie is the dominant personality in Jersey politics right now. In part it may also be because Menendez spent the previous two-year cycle chairing the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, therefore focusing on national politics more than local matters – but Chuck Schumer held that job for four years and remained ever-visible in New York throughout his tenure. Regardless, Menendez is leading a different New Jersey state senator, Joe Kyrillos, by larger margins than he typically led Kean in 2006. He rarely breaks 50% in polling, buyt Kyrillos is way behind and shows no signs of closing the gap. Folks in Jersey don’t necessarily know much about their junior senator, but clearly he hasn’t offended them, either.

Rating: Safe Democratic

 

New Mexico

This was supposed to fairly competitive. Longtime popular Democratic incumbent Jeff Bingaman retired, and both parties put forth their strongest possible candidates.  Republicans nominated former Congresswoman Heather Wilson, an Air Force fighter pilot with relatively moderate credentials, and Democrats selected her successor in New Mexico’s 1st district, Congressman Martin Heinrich. Both candidates had won in a swingy district in tough years (Wilson in ’06, Heinrich in ’10).

But after being a presidential swing state in 2000 and 2004, New Mexico really isn’t one anymore. Sure, Republicans fared well here in the strong Republican year of 2010. But Obama carried the state with ease four years ago and is doing so again.  Tom Udall won an open senate seat by 22.6% in 2008. And Heinrich has basically led from the start in the Senate race – first by smaller leads, now by a double-digit margin. The Republicans’ National Republican Senatorial Committee has stopped spending here, so it doesn’t see a path to victory for Wilson. I don’t either. Young Martin Heinrich’s upward career path looks set to continue into the Senate without much difficulty.

Rating: Safe Democratic

 

New York

Another young Democratic up-and-comer, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, was appointed in 2009 to this seat (formerly Hillary Clinton’s), won a special election in 2010 to serve the remainder of Clinton’s term, and is about to win a full six-year term this November. Republicans nominated attorney and conservative activist Wendy Long, who has gained no traction whatsoever. It took Gillibrand a while to build up statewide name recognition, but her leading role on an impressive array of legislative initiatives Don’t Ask/Don’t Tell repeal, the 9/11 first responders’ health bill, the insider trading ban for members of Congress, and her continued work on the farm bill) has changed that, and her approvals have risen steadily upward as a result. The question for this year is whether Gillibrand can top her 62% showing from two years ago; it seems likely that she will.

Rating: Safe Democratic

 

Rhode Island

In 2006, this was a hotly contested seat: Lincoln Chafee, the most moderate-to-liberal Republican in the Senate faced a tough re-election bid – first against conservative primary challenger Steve Laffey, and then against Democratic attorney general Sheldon Whitehouse. Chafee survived Laffey’s strong challenge and kept it relatively close against Whitehouse, but the Democrat pulled away for a seven-point victory. Chafee is now the Obama-endorsing independent governor of Rhode Island, and Whitehouse is the incumbent in a safe senate seat. Software company founder and president Barry Hinckley trails by huge margins in a race that appears on no one’s competitiveness radar.

Rating: Safe Democratic

 

Tennessee

When Bill Frist retired in 2006, it set up a tight race between Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker, a Republican, and Democratic Representative Harold Ford, Jr. Corker was always favored in this Republican-leaning state, but Ford kept it close to the end and may have been undone by a race-baiting ads in the final days of the campaign. Democratic fortunes have gotten much worse in the Volunteer State since then, and this year, Tennessee has never been considered in play at the presidential or senate level. Accordingly, Democrats failed to recruit a strong challenger here this year. So in a Democratic primary with few voters and zero name recognition for any candidate, the winner was the man whose name appeared at the top of the ballot – Mark Clayton. He’s the president of a conservative organization called Public Advocate USA that is considered an anti-gay hate group by the Southern Poverty Law Center. So this is the only state in the union in which the Republican senate candidate is the more liberal of the two major party options. Clayton was immediately disowned by the state and national Democratic parties; Corker will likely top 70% to easily win a second term.

Rating: Safe Republican

 

Texas

Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison is retiring after 19 years in the Senate. Former Texas Solicitor General Ted Cruz is replacing her. Yes, Texans still have to vote to make it official, but Democrats didn’t recruit a serious candidate. Former state representative Paul Sadler trails by high double-digits in most polls to the Tea Party’s latest up-and-comer in Cruz, who won a difficult Republican primary to earn the right to walk through the general election. It’s possible that in a decade, every statewide race in Texas will be a battle, assuming Democrats can continue to fare well among the state’s exploding non-white population. But demographic shifts take time, and for the moment, Texas will continue to elect two Republicans to the U.S. Senate.

Rating: Safe Republican

 

Utah

The action in Utah’s recent Senate races has been in the Republican nominating conventions and primaries, where incumbents have had to fend off strong challenges from the right. Robert Bennett failed to survive in 2010, but Orrin Hatch learned from his colleague’s travails, struck alliances with Tea Party activists, and easily defeated his challenger this year. His Democratic opponent has a great resume: Scott Howell served in executive posts with IBM and as a state senator. He’s running as a conservative Democrat in a deeply conservative state. But that’s going to be enough in Utah, especially with Mitt Romney atop the ticket  with his ties to the LDS Church and the Salt Lake City Olympics. Hatch will win his seventh term next month.

Rating: Safe Republican

 

Vermont

Bernie is beloved in Vermont. That’s first-term Senator Bernie Sanders, an independent who caucuses with Democrats.  An avowed democratic socialist, Sanders gained popularity as the mayor of Burlington in the 1980s before being elected to the House in 1990. When Senator Jim Jeffords retired in 2006, Sanders made the jump with ease, winning 65% of the vote. He’ll do something similar this year. For a time it looked like Tom Salmon – Vermont’s State Auditor and a Democrat-turned-Republican – would mount a challenge, but he ultimately passed. The mantle was taken up by John MacGovern, served in the Massachusetts House of Representatives for eight years in the 1980s and early 1990s. He has tried running for the Vermont state senate a couple of times and lost; he’ll lose this one, too.

Rating: Safe Independent (effectively Safe Democratic)

 

Washington

Remember RealAudio? Yeah, it wasn’t the best piece of software you’ve used. But Maria Cantwell did pretty well as an executive at RealNetworks, the company that created it. From there, she defeated incumbent Republican Slade Gorton to win this Senate seat in 2000. Her tenth-of-a-percentage-point margin was one of the slimmest in the country that year; her 17-point reelection margin in 2006 was quite a bit more comfortable. She’ll do about the same against State Senator Michael Baumgartner this year: her polling lead has doubled from the start of the year as she closes in on a 60% vote share. Republicans made a game effort to win a Senate race here in 2010, but fell about five point short in the best year for Republican in a generation. It’s certainly not happening for them this time around.

Rating: Safe Democratic

 

West Virginia

The Mountain State is a fascinating one. Not long ago, it was usually blue at the federal level: Carter won it twice, Dukakis carried it, Clinton won it twice with ease. It was somewhat surprising when Gore fell short here in 2000. Bush dramatically expanded his winning margin in 2004, and in 2008 both major party candidates saw their vote shares fall but Obama fell further than McCain. Clearly a red state then, yes? But political observers know that West Virginia remains overwhelmingly Democratic in registration and in its state legislature. Republicans did pick up a Congressional seat in 2010, but Dems held the Senate seat by a comfortable margin after a heated campaign. In 2011, Democrats held the governorship – albeit narrowly. West Virginia remains very happy to elect Democrats, but of a certain type. Allegiance to the coal industry is a must. Same goes for supporting gun rights. Pro-choice candidates are frowned upon.

Joe Manchin fits the bill. He won two smashing gubernatorial victories, with 64% and 70% even as Bush and McCain were carrying the state the same year. After the death of the legendary Senate Robert Byrd, Manchin ran in the 2010 special election. In an anti-Obama state and a tough year for Democrats, it looked dicey for a while…but Manchin ended up with a 10-point victory over wealthy businessman John Raese. This year is a rematch between the conservative Democrat and the Florida-residing Raese, and this time it’s truly going to be a blowout. Manchin has led by as much as 52% in one poll. That’s a stretch, but Manchin can count on winning a full six-year term this fall. Whether his more liberal colleague Jay Rockefeller can do the same in two years amidst Republican efforts to paint the Democratic Party as anti-coal is a much more complicated proposition.

Rating: Safe Democratic

 

Wyoming

John Barrasso was appointed in 2007 to replace Senator Craig Thomas’ term after the latter man died of leukemia. He won a special election in 2008 to serve out the remainder of Thomas’ term, and is now running for his first full term in the Senate. Barrasso previously served in the Wyoming legislature and now consistently ranks as the one of the most conservative members of the Senate. That works just fine in Wyoming, where there hasn’t been anything resembling a competitive Senate race since 1996.

Democrats do sometimes win statewide here: just recently, Dave Freudenthal served two terms from 2003-2011 as one of the most popular governors in America. Democrats in fact won seven out of nine  gubernatorial races from 1974 through 2006. Gary Trauner ran very competitive races for Congress in 2006 and 2008. But Freudenthal was term-limited in 2010 and Democrats did not make a serious play for that House seat. Democrats are running an elected official for this seat in Albany County Commissioner Tim Chesnut, but he lacks money and Barrasso has no weaknesses in a state that likes its federal representatives very, very conservative.

Rating: Safe Republican