Within the Margin

Not all of today’s intriguing primaries revolve around the Conservative Party’s opposition to the 2011 marriage equality vote. Plenty of other assembly and senate primaries are on tap today. I’ll focus here on those in and near the Hudson Valley, which I know best. We start with a rollicking Republican race in southern Dutchess County.

Assembly District 105: Southern Dutchess County 

Those who follow New York politics know that Democrats draw the Assembly map every ten years, and Republicans draw the Senate map. In the most recent redistricting, the Assembly effectively eliminated Joel Miller’s district, using pieces of it to make the old 103rd into a new, bluer 106th while conceding a likely-Republican 105th district in southern Dutchess County. Naturally, that attracted a host of GOP candidates:

• Former six-term 103rd district Assemblyman Pat Manning jumped in, seeing a good opportunity to stage a political comeback after the dramatic events of 2006: that year, Marc Molinaro narrowly defeated him in a bitterly-contested primary. It was a victory made possible by Manning’s abortive run for governor and by controversy surrounding Manning’s marriage and mistress. Before that, Manning was a rising prospect: elected as a young man to the county legislator, re-elected with ease to the Assembly term after term, and father of the state’s popular STAR program to aid seniors with rising property taxes. He’s been itching to get back in the game, sniffing around a county legislature bid in 2011 but ultimately deciding to pass. The chance to return to his old haunt at the state capitol was too good to pass up – but the local GOP establishment has little love for Manning these days. The county committee was remade by Molinaro ahead of the 2006 primary, and some still feel a general “ickiness” over the public fallout from Manning’s personal life.

• Kieran Michael Lalor (also my high school economics teacher, a night watchman and Iraq War veteran) originally intended to primary Joel Miller, but the latter’s retirement rendered that moot. The new district lines mean that Lalor could conceivably win a general election, but he is a deeply conservative and volatile figure who appeals to the party base but frightens its establishment. This is Lalor’s second run for elected office: he lost to John Hall by eighteen points in a 2008 Congressional race. Lalor’s reputation as a bomb-thrower limits his appeal, but that might not matter in a low-turnout, base-fueled race: remember that Carl Paladino fared rather well in the 2010 primary in Dutchess County.

• Richard Wager is a former Bloomberg aide who ran for Molinaro’s assembly seat in a special election in March. Wager was heavily favored, but lost to Didi Barrett for the first Democratic win in that seat in living memory. He lacks local ties and his surprise defeat has removed some of his luster. He doesn’t come with the baggage of Manning or Lalor, but does he have enough going for him to break through?

• Fishkill mayor and county legislator Jim Miccio wanted the seat, but dropped out before petitioning amidst the wrangling over party endorsements and third-party ballot lines.

There has been no public polling of the primary, but it was implied to me by one insider that Manning has the edge and Wager sits in third, but that Wager could take enough of the vote from mainstream Republicans that Lalor is able to squeak out a victory.

The story doesn’t end there, however. Wager has received the Conservative endorsement, so he’s on the ballot in November…unless he is defeated by a write-in candidate (either Lalor or Manning) in today’s Opportunity to Ballot primary. Lalor is unchallenged on the Independence line, so we’re definitely seeing him again on November 6. Meanwhile, the district is a Republican vote sink…but it’s actually not impossible for the right Democrat to win. And Paul Curran might be that candidate: he’s an MBA with who started his own company that develops renewable energy projects on brownfield sites. Whereas there could conceivably be three different Republicans on the general election ballot – and even if there’s only two, ill-will may linger from this campaign – Curran has the party united behind him. So this race is really just getting started with today’s voting.

Assembly District 94 – eastern Putnam, northern Westchester

When Greg Ball moved up to the state senate in 2010, his old 99th seat was captured by Steve Katz, a veterinarian from Mohegan Lake. A firm Tea Partier, Katz’s district was changed slightly by redistricting (trading Pawling for Putnam Valley) but remains a strongly Republican district. He flirted with a challenge to Ball, but opted to stay in the Assembly, where he has his own primary challenger in the form of Dario Gristina. A businessman who emigrated from Italy as a young child, Gristina has an interesting narrative and an interesting ex-wife who used to run a lucrative prostitution ring. He has raised a substantial warchest, though much of it was a $200,000 self-loan of which he has paid back about a third, so read into that what you will.

I think it’s pretty hard to get to the right of Steve Katz, so I suspect the incumbent is safe here. Gristina is also mounting a write-in bid to take the Conservative line from Katz, but I doubt that will be successful, either. Additionally, Katz’s wife has become a mini-celebrity for her video denouncing Ball’s Facebook censorship and for posting pictures of herself with firearms. I think people want to keep her around as much as they do the assemblyman himself.

Senate District 44 – Albany/Capitol Region

Neil Breslin has represented the Albany County senate district since the mid-1990s, and has become accustomed to primary challengers in this safely Democratic seat. This year, he’s facing strong opposition from firefighter and Albany County legislator Shawn Morse. Morse has raised a respectable sum of money – enough to be competitive with Breslin. The incumbent also faces a new map: Republicans decided to break up Albany County, even though it has the right population for its own standalone district as has historically been drawn. The new district removes a healthy chunk of Albany County towns and replaces them with Troy and Rensselaer across the river. These towns are sufficiently entwined with Albany that they are surely familiar with Breslin, but that differs from having habitually voted for the man. And it’s not like Breslin’s made his own life easier – struggling in past campaigns to discuss legislation, a situation which repeated itself at a debate earlier this month when he forgot that he co-sponsored pay raise legislation. Morse has also hit the incumbent on a lack of progress in mandate relief, public safety issues and campaign finance reform. It’s not a purely ideological primary; it’s more that he’s taking on an incumbent he feels has been in too long. Finally, Morse has the endorsement and financial backing of the Independent Democratic Conference, the quartet of breakaway Senate Dems led by Jeff Klein. Their ideology and priorities have proved inscrutable thus far, but claiming Breslin’s scalp would be something of a breakthrough.

Breslin has the endorsement of Governor Andrew Cuomo, and in a low-turnout primary that could prove decisive. Cuomo does not always generate a great deal of enthusiasm among the party faithful, but impressions of Albany are improving under Cuomo’s governorship so anti-incumbent sentiment is probably not running high enough to take out Breslin. So I think Breslin survives, but I wish I had followed this one more closely from the outset.

Senate District 46 – Kingston to Amsterdam; parts of Ulster,  Albany, Schenectady counties; all of Greene and Montgomery counties

It has become a decennial rite of passage: Republicans look at their Senate map, fear for the sanctity of their majority, and use the arcana of the state constitution’s reapportionment formula to create a new senate district. They used one set of numbers in 2002 to arrive at a 62nd district, and a completely different set of conditions to conjure a 63rd in 2012. And this seat, the sprawling Catskills/foothills/Mohawk-based 46th, is the new seat. It’s designed for Republican Assemblyman George Amedore to win in November, and indeed, he’s a pretty good bet to win it.

But Democrats haven’t given up hope. After all, though designed by Republicans for Republicans, it’s still a district that would have given Barack Obama 53% of the presidential vote in 2008. Three challengers are competing for the right to take on Amedore. The Ulster county portion of the district is the largest segment, and the Ulster Dems have endorsed Cecilia Tkaczyk, the school board president in Duanesburg (Schenectady County). She has a diverse background: a degree in Agricultural Science, and work as a legislative analyst in the state senate, and in the field of affordable housing before that…and she owns a flock of sheep on her small farm, so obviously I’m a fan. Geographically, she comes from the rural part of Schenectady County, so she does not necessarily cede that area (part of which is represented by Amedore in the Assembly). Also in the race is Tom Dolan, a Coeymans town councilman, and Monica Arias Miranda, an activist from Schenectady County.

Tkaczyk has raised the most money of the three primary candidates, in excess of $100,000. Arias and Dolan have raised much smaller sums. I would assume that Tkaczyk wins the primary fairly easily and gives Amedore a competitive face in the fall. She would be exactly the sort of upstate senator that Democrats to offset some of NYC’s dominance in their caucus.

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I’ll be back tonight after polls close to offer some commentary as results roll in.