Within the Margin

Politico is the embodiment of the 24/7 hyperactive news cycle that has contributed to the sharp-edged political environment we all so frequently lament. And yet, if you geek out on this stuff, you’re amused by entries like this from yesterday’s Playbook email:

2016 WATCH – RESPECT MUST BE PAID: Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Virginia Sen. Mark Warner will address the Iowa delegation’s breakfast on Wednesday. Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer and New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand speak on Thursday. All five are potential presidential candidates in 2016. (h/t JMart)

In Politico’s mind, of course, no one talks to Iowa unless they want to win the Iowa caucuses for years from now. Iowans, they presume, are so wrapped up in the caucuses that they’ll forget to vote this November. But I’ll play along, because after all, there’s a reason I receive the Playbook email, isn’t there? Let’s take a look at those folks:

• Martin O’Malley is on everyone’s list as a “dude who’ll probably run” as a successful two-term governor who’s telegenic and currently heading up the Democratic Governors Association, the campaign committee tasked with winning governors’ mansions for Democrats this fall. O’Malley speaks at the convention tonight, so I’m looking forward to my first in-person glance at a contender.

• Amy Klobuchar is a first-term senator headed toward a landslide re-election win this fall. She’s frequently among the top few senators in terms of favorability polling. She’s known as a diligent, serious senator with impeccable progressive credentials but without the sharp partisan elbows of so many of her colleagues. By all accounts, she’s just a good person who happens to be a really effective senator. As a good-government-first guy, I would give serious thought to supporting a Klobuchar presidential bid. But the cynical side of me wonders if America is ready – ok, I’ll invite criticism: deserving – of a president like her. After all, Obama based his first term on the premise he could work with both parties, and that has proven a tad idealistic. Maybe she’s just talking to Iowa because they’re neighbors. But maybe she’s keeping her options open, too.

• Mark Warner remains popular in Virginia, where he was previously governor. I seem to recall that he preferred a senate bid to a presidential/vice presidential bid in 2008 because he didn’t want to deal with the enormous level of scrutiny involved, but I’m in a rush today so I can’t link to anything to that effect. Warner brings a slightly different profile than some major Democrats, as a hugely successful businessman who has performed very well in parts of rural Virginia that have been trending away from other Democrats in the last decade or so.

• Brian Schweitzer is a personal favorite for his style and effectiveness, including his ability to win big in Montana. I’m a staunchly pro-gun Democrat, so I’m happy to have a “more guns than I need and not as many as I want” national candidate. But I acknowledge that Schweitzer’s views on the issue would give him trouble in urban state primaries. His views on energy policy would do the same, and I might have to part with him there. But it seems like he should really be in the national discussion, to make sure Democrats are hearing from, and working with, extraction-based states as we develop a national energy infrastructure.

• Kirsten Gillibrand was my Congresswoman before she became a Senator; I knocked on oodles of doors for her in 2006 and 2008. She has supported – with actions, not just words – our local candidates in the Hudson Valley, even profound underdogs, and always remembered my brother from her first campaign in 2006. Responsible writing requires that I acknowledge  that KG is a not an abstract political figure for those of us in northern Dutchess County. I think she would have strengths and weaknesses as a national candidate, with the foremost strength being a legislative record that’s quite impressive for someone who’s been in the Senate for under four years. I also think she would defer to fellow statewide official Andrew Cuomo, who everyone expects to run in 2016. But speaking to the Iowa delegation allows us, with the help of Politico’s framing, to wonder if a run is in the offing for the junior senator from New York