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Realistic about Romney
Scarborough, earlier this week:
Romney’s continued weakness in the Heart of Dixie spells trouble for the GOP this fall. The only question is whether it will take a Santorum win in Wisconsin to refocus Republican minds on the unassailable fact that GOP presidential candidates cannot win unless they have the support of rock-ribbed conservatives. Mitt Romney does not, and that is becoming clearer by the day in this painful primary season.
No one questions that Romney has problems with conservatives of various stripes, and that this has helped forestall his clinching of the Republican presidential nomination. But earlier in that piece, the normally-sharp Scarborough ticks off the Southern states that are in play and references those that Barack Obama or Bill Clinton won over the last twenty years. Let me be clear: I do think that the two states Obama carried four years ago (Virginia and North Carolina) are very much winnable for him again, but I don’t think under-enthused conservatives will be Romney’s problem in those states so much as the growing ranks of highly-educated and often-transplanted voters in those states, whose social liberalism could be offset by an appealing fiscally conservative message but for the fact that Romney offers numbers that these voters know won’t add up: huge tax cuts coupled with large increases in defense spending. Elsewhere, asking conservatives to turn out so weakly in, say, Georgia that Obama is able to add that to his win column – as he almost did in 2008 – is a bit much. Romney would have to truly alienate independents to make that happen – mind you, the GOP’s twin-obsession with contraception and abortion might just do that, but we’re not there yet.
Meanwhile, I’m still deeply skeptical that Republican or conservative turnout will be weakened at all this year, whether we’re talking about the South like Scarborough is, or the Rust Belt, or the Rocky Mountains. Sure, Romney trails Obama more often than not in national polls and in key states, but we’re still in spring training in more ways than one. Democrats have not fully erased the enthusiasm gap that has existed since the darkest months of the recession. The idea that the Republican primary process is tarnishing their party’s image is true enough, but not irreversible. The idea that Republicans will be so bored with Romney that they don’t show up to vote against their hated foe, Obama? That remains laughable, in the South and everywhere else.
Less-Super-Than-2008 Tuesday
Only ten states feature in this year’s edition of Super Tuesday, compared to a ridiculous twenty-one four years ago. That means there’s not enough delegates at stake tonight for Romney to come anywhere close to clinching the nomination mathematically…but it’s more than enough to devastate Rick Santorum’s hopes. Here’s what tonight will bring:
Alaska: This was safely Romney territory (44%) four years ago, but the 2012 version of Mittens has struggled to keep up with Rick Santorum in caucuses, which is how Alaska will award its delegates tonight. A somewhat Santorum-esque character won here in 1988 in the form of Pat Robertson. But generally, I tend to think of Alaska as a libertarian stronghold, and I think Paul’s politics are in ascendance more than those of culture warriors. Coming into this nominating contest, I would have pegged The Last Frontier as one of Paul’s best chances to actually win a state…but let’s face it, folks: Republicans like their military and they like their Medicare, so Paul has a ceiling in this nominating contest, and it seems to be in the 23-27% range. He has topped that only once so far, in the Maine caucuses where it was just him and Mitt competing. With no polling in Alaska and with candidates focused on contests in the Lower 48, I think we’ll see a Mitt victory here, though not with an overwhelming vote share.
Georgia: No one likes a two-man race! We get those all the time. And so we are thankful, in a way, that Newt Gingrich is still around and will carry Georgia tonight. He’s up anywhere from 10 to 26 points in polling, and three surveys released yesterday actually pegged him at 47%. So not only should he win tonight, but he should come away with a considerable proportion of Georgia’s 76 delegates.
Idaho: Barack Obama posted a huge (above 80%) number in Idaho’s Democratic caucuses four years ago, as people began to realize that his campaign understood well that caucuses were the market inefficiency to exploit in the race for delegates. One assumes Paul will be well-organized here, but this fast-growing state features a sizable Mormon population in the southeast that will carry Mitt tonight.
Massachusetts: Like most states in the union, Mitt claims this as one of his home states. By the time he left the governor’s office in January 2007 his approval ratings were sliding among Democrats and independents, thanks to a sharp turn to the right ahead of his first presidential bid. The state’s GOP voters still liked him just fine, and he won 51-41 over McCain here in the 2008 primary. It’ll be a bigger margin this time, since Gingrich, Paul and Santorum lack the cache that McCain once held in New England.
North Dakota: Some of my in-laws are in Washburn, so I spent a few wonderful days hanging out in the Flickertail State back in 2006, and parts of two more days driving across its considerable width. It’s a great place, so it’s too bad the candidates couldn’t spend more time here this year. Alas, the focus is largely on Ohio, Georgia and Tennessee tonight. It’s a caucus state and it’s an upper midwestern state, and that’s been a winning formula for Santorum so far. Ron Paul is saying he could win here, and is in fact spending time in Fargo tonight. But I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that Santorum and Paul split enough votes for Mitt to squeak by.
Ohio: This is a big prize tonight, with 63 delegates and unlike Georgia, no home-field candidate. We had nine new polls released yesterday: two showed the race tied, four showed Romney ahead by anywhere from 1 to 7 points, and three showed showed a Santorum lead of 1-4 points. The Pennsylvanian’s time is slipping away, as has a previously-large Santorum lead in this state. Mitt’s win in Michigan leaves me convinced he can basically put Santorum away here. It’s too close to call, but that’s not how I roll…I see a narrow Romney win, maybe a 3-4 point margin.
Oklahoma: Where the wind comes sweeping down the plain! And where Rick Santorum will sweep to victory tonight. McCain narrowly beat Huck here four years ago, but the Huck-like candidate will prevail this time. Santorum has comfortably led Oklahoma polling for weeks now, but I think his margin won’t reach double-digits.
Tennessee: The Volunteer State brings the third-largest delegate haul tonight, and one of the few three-way races: most polls show a small Santorum lead over Romney, while Newt (from neighboring Georgia) hangs in at a respectable third or even second in some surveys. I think Newt ends up fading a bit further, allowing Santorum to eke out a win.
Vermont: Romney’s profile as the establishment quasi-moderate this year should allow him to cruise here. Santorum and Gingrich are simply abhorrent to Green Mountain voters of just about any stripe, and Paul is focused on the western caucus states. Easy win for Mittens.
Virginia: One of the things we’ll look back on with this nominating season is how ill-prepared everyone except Romney was for a national campaign. This is evidenced by the failure of anyone besides Romney and Paul to make it on the ballot in Virginia. Under those conditions, Romney will be Paul roughly 3:1.
So I’m predicting 7 wins for Romney, 2 for Santorum and 1 for Newt. Perhaps Paul can prove me wrong and snag a win or two in this three targeted states of Alaska, Idaho and North Dakota, but I’m skeptical for the reasons I mentioned in the Alaska capsule. As for Santorum, he needs to beat my prediction – most notably in Ohio. A couple of primary wins in OK and TN are nice, and some caucus wins would be helpful, but he has to show he can go head-to-head with Mitt in a big primary state and beat him. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Santorum out of this race in the near future.
Within the Margin 