Within the Margin

As someone who went to school in North Carolina, I try to pay attention to what goes on down there. I came to love my time in the Tar Heel state and helping elect President Obama there in 2008 was a great feeling. 

Last week Governor Beverly “Bev” Perdue and Congressman Ralph Bradley “Brad” Miller announced they would not seek re-election this year. For Perdue, lagging poll numbers in popularity and unchanged head-to-head polls against 2008 GOP nominee and 2012 hopeful Pat McCrory were the largest culprits in her decision to serve just one term. Miller fell victim to a Gerrymander out of the first Republican-held North Carolina Legislature in a century. Faced with squaring off against fellow Democrat (and slightly more liberal) David Price in the new 4th District or retiring, Miller chose to retire.

Perdue has had a rocky term as governor, to say the least. She entered office during the worst of the economic downturn that faced much of the Country. North Carolina has had one of the highest unemployment rates in the nation since the recessions started and only recently saw its unemployment rate drop below 10%. Perdue and the Democratic majorities in the Legislature attempted to stop the economic bleeding in 2009, but partisan gridlock before the bloodbath of 2010 meant that  little was accomplished. After Democrats lost the majorities in the House and Senate in NC, Perdue has largely played defense for much of the last two years, vetoing many bad bills and preventing NC from joining many other southern states in implementing discriminatory Voter ID laws. Assemble partisan gridlock, high disapproval ratings and a re-match against McCrory, and it’s easy to see that Perdue would rather take one for the team and not run again, allowing for another Democrat to grow in status and potentially keep the governorship in the hands of Team Blue. I think the GOP nominee for President could end up having significant impact on the North Carolina Council of State elections as well as congressional elections in the Tar Heel State.

Democrats in North Carolina, unlike other southern and swing states, have a wide bench to sort from to replace the outgoing governor, thanks in large part to their many state-wide elected officials. Right now the entire kitchen sink may well be considering a gubernatorial run. The North Carolina Council of State is largely filled with Democrats elected in 2008 (they hold 4 year terms, voted at the same time as the President). They include: Lieutenant Governor Walter Dalton, Attorney General Roy Cooper, Treasurer Janet Cowell, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (who likely wouldn’t run for anything besides her post), Auditor Beth Wood, Superintendent of Public Instruction June Atkinson, and Commissioner of Insurance Wayne Goodwin. Of this group, Dalton has announced his intention to run; Cowell and Cooper are out and Wood hasn’t made any mention whatsoever. There’s also State Representative Bill Faison (who according to reports has been stockpiling cash for a while) interested in a run for Governor. Former Raleigh Mayor Charles Meeker would also make for an interesting candidate. Congressmen Heath Schuler and Mike McIntyre are way too conservative to a Democratic primary electorate. We don’t know who will jump in just yet, but I can say that Erskine Bowles (mentioned by the Washington Post) wouldn’t last long as a candidate for Governor. After two failed Senate bids and some less-than-successful time on corporate boards, Bowles should shy away from elective office, and he largely has. Also, Congressman Miller and former Congressman Bob Etheridge (who lost to Congresswoman Renee Ellmers in one of the most painful losses last year, and almost exclusively at the hands of two college-age Republican operatives) are now seriously considering the race.

As for Miller, his 13th District, and more specifically his apartment complex was gerrymandered perfectly into neighboring Democrat David Price’s 4th district. The Gerrymander was so precise that Mille is in the 4th but the rest of his precinct is in the 13th district. Republicans in charge of redistricting also made the 13th more Republican in hopes of scaring off Miller from Congress, and it appears that they’ll succeed. The blog Blue NC, and a look at North Carolina’s upcoming elections on Wikipedia, show a slew of Republican hopefuls all lining up to challenge for the seat. No Democrats as of right now have stepped up, though hopefully someone will. It’s not that the 13th will be all that winnable, but forcing the GOP’s hand in a district like the reformed 13th could be useful in the national landscape for the Democratic Party. Forcing precious resources in what should be a slam dunk seat for the GOP would be great. But that’s just my opinion.

Finally, of note, yesterday two female Democratic members of the General Assembly announced they would step down from their posts: Diane Parfitt and Alice Bordsen. From what I’ve read, Brodsen was a redistricting victim and the same likely holds true for Parfitt. It sucks to lose good Democrats, but when one party maintains most of the drawing power, these things will happen. It’s possible that these seats will be held by Dems in November, but it would have to take a historically poor performance by the GOP at the top of the ticket (presidential and Gubernatorial) to lose control of either chamber of the legislature that they’ve so craftily established. While I think North Carolina is a truly purple state for this presidential and gubernatorial election, things look rosy for the Republicans at the Legislative level.

As we get closer to the election a more thorough look at this race will be needed. By then, Dems will have their state-wide situation resolved and voters will remember who Pat McCrory is.